Steep gains seen for open after GDP slide in line with forecast
Small-cap stocks are expected to open sharply higher, boosted by gains in global equities overnight, an improved tone in commodities and a tame GDP report. Stock index futures were up about 2.8% before and after the GDP release, which suggests a Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) opening near 505.50.
The GDP report came in at minus 0.3%, slightly better than the forecast for a decline of 0.5%. Although the headline figure wasn’t as bad as feared, this still marked the sharpest contraction in economic activity in seven years, and economists fear that the pullback in growth has sharpened even more in recent weeks.
Stock markets around the world were in rally mode overnight, with the world stock index up 2.5%, powered by steep gains in some Asian markets. Hong Kong shot up some 10% and Taiwan was up 6% as those countries announced rate cuts following the Fed’s rate cut Thursday. Emerging markets also were on a roll overnight, climbing some 8%.
Energy stocks were in the spotlight today, with Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM), the world’s largest publicly traded company (Volkswagen’s bizarre intraday reign at the top of the heap was very brief earlier this week) reporting earnings this morning. XOM beat the forecast and reporting a whopping quarterly profit of more than $14 billion. XOM shares were up about 1% in pre-market activity. Apache Corp. (NYSE:APA) and Marathon Oil (NYSE:MRO) are also slated to release results today.
Crude oil futures were up about $1 heading toward the opening, and commodities were on firm footing again today after a big rally Wednesday that provided a lift to small caps. The U.S. dollar was down against this morning versus the euro, which was a supportive element for commodities Thursday. Copper prices in China were up about 4%; copper is a key worldwide economic proxy.
Looking at the chart picture, small caps appear poised to vault through key “figure” resistance at 500 on the opening. Above there, resistance comes in today at 514.50, then at 525. On the downside, any slide back below 500 would be troubling and would find only moderate support at 488, then a better test down at 474.
