Mild dip; energy up, but financials down
Small-caps stocks opened slightly higher, but slipped into negative territory within 25 minutes as the market juggles positive input from commodities against soft financial shares. There is something of a waiting game going on right now in anticipation of the automaker bailout, FOMC Tuesday and wreckage from the multi-billion investor swindle that was revealed late last week. At 9:57 a.m. ET, the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) was down 1.42, or 0.30%, at 467.01.
The market is waiting for news today on the bailout proposal by White House officials for the beleaguered auto sector. Hopes for a quick package to keep U.S. carmakers away from bankruptcy played a big role in overnight gains in Asian trading.
In addition, market watchers continue to keep tabs on the Madoff trading scandal, to try and see just how deep the losses will run and what impact it will have on high-end investor funds and confidence in the trading community.
The first batch of economic data this week focused on the manufacturing sector of the economy. The numbers were predictably awful, with the New York Manufacturing Survey notching a record low reading of minus 25.8; ironically, that was still better than the projection of minus 27.5, which underscores just how bleak expectations are running right now. In the wake of the NY report, the industrial production release came out at minus 0.6%, which was also better than the forecast for a slide of 0.9%. In overnight action, the Bank of Japan’s “tankan” survey showed the largest collapse in manufacturing confidence in 34 years, but it didn’t stop the Japanese stock market from soaring 5.2% overnight amid hope for a bailout of U.S. automakers.
European shares were basically flat heading into the U.S. open, but Asian markets were in rally mode overnight. In addition to the big gains in Japan, Hong Kong shares were up 1.9%, Taiwan up 2.9%, South Korea up 4.8%, India up 1.4%, Australia up 2.3%, Singapore up 1.9% and China up 0.7%.
Energy markets were on firm footing this morning, which should provide a lift to energy-related stocks. Crude oil prices were up some $3 a barrel into the stock market open, pushing back above the key $50 level ahead of an OPEC meeting later this week in which the group is expected to trim production once again. The story in commodities this morning was more than just crude oil, with a wide range of physical markets expected to get a lift from sinking U.S. dollar values, which makes commodity goods that are priced in dollar terms more attractive. The greenback was down some 1.5% against the euro this morning, sinking to the lowest level since mid-October.
Individual small caps on the move this morning include Gaylord Entertainment Co. (NYSE:GET), which gapped higher and jumped 37% following a bullish article in Barron’s. Clearwire Corp. (Nasdaq:CLWRD) rose 17% without any apparent fresh news behind the move. On the downside, Huntsman Corp. (NYSE:HUN) tumbled 32% on news that the company terminated a takeover deal from a chemical firm. Universal Truckload Services Inc. (Nasdaq:UACL), slumped 18% giving back a nice rally from last week in one quick downside swoon.
The Russell appears to be coiling for some type of breakout move after seeing the tightest range last week since the collapse began back in September. The odds favor a downside resolution of this consolidation, but as long as the Russell holds above 416, the bottoming argument still holds significant weight. Looking at today’s trading, resistance is just overhead at 473, then at 481.50, but the critical test last week was at 491 and it remains there this week. If the market starts to slip this morning, support is at 461, 452.50 and 442.
