Reader Mail!
We have a lot to cover. First and foremost, there are your
replies to yesterday's question about the coming GM IPO. Daily Profit readers
absolutely flooded my inbox with responses. And it's probably no surprise
that you are not happy about how the GM IPO is being handled.
Many of you said you would never buy a GM product again. I
wonder if GM considered how angry potential customers might be over this IPO?
If not, they should have.
I'll include a few of your letters at the end of today's
letter.
It's beennearly 3
years since the stock market topped and began selling off in anticipation of
what would become a banking crisis and housing disaster. Economic recovery is
a process of de-leveraging, which basically means getting debt in order.
For many companies, this meant firing workers to lower
costs. For the banks, it meant changing the accounting rules to under-report
debt. For the average citizen, it's meant saving more and spending less. And
for citizens who have become unemployed or own house with an underwater
mortgage, well, it's been very rough.
Investors have been fixated on employment data for signs
that the economy is getting healthy. So far, they have gone wanting as the
jobs market has been stubborn.
But employment isn't the only sign of health. The New York
Fed released a report yesterday that showed consumer indebtedness fell 1.5%
in the Second Quarter.
In particular, credit-card debt has fallen to the lowest
level since October 2005. the number of open credit cards has fallen 23% over
the last two years.
Mortgage originations are up 20% from their lows at the end
of 2008. Last week, home refinancing loan demand hit the highest levels in
over a year. And auto loans are up 32% from their lows in early 2009.
American households are getting back on their feet. And as
I've said in the past, rising employment will be one of the last things to
improve.
The government is
looking at new options to help the housing market and deal with Fannie Mae
and Freddie Mac. Normally, this would be a good time for a "we're from the
government, we're here to help" joke. But the conference on housing reform
featured a panel that included institutional investors and banking
executives, so there's hope.
I found the comments from PIMCO's Bill Gross particularly
interesting.
"To suggest that there's a large place for private
financing in the future of American housing finance is unrealistic. The only
way to bring housing back and to create liquid, financeable mortgage finance
going forward would be to provide a government guarantee. It would be
provided for by adequate insurance, by sufficient down payments, and over
encompassing regulatory environment that instead of allowing no docs and liar
loans provides adequate supervision for any mortgage going
forward."
"PIMCO would not buy a private or a privately insured
mortgage pool unless it was accompanied by a 30 percent down payment, too
high in today's market to permit new housing or even secondary market
purchase. Without government guarantees, mortgages rates would be hundreds,
hundreds of basis points higher, resulting in a moribund housing market for
years."
"Policymakers should quickly re-engineer a refinancing
opportunity for all mortgagees that are current on payments and are included
in GSE securitized mortgages. The
American economy is approaching a cul-de-sac of stimulus, both monetarily and
fiscally, which will slow it to a snails' pace incapable of providing
sufficient job growth going forward. Unemployment rates will approach and
remain at double digits unless a positive fiscal stimulus is provided in the
next six months. This home financing to my way of thinking, and to PIMCO's
way of thinking, where you take 5, 6, and 7 percent mortgages and turn them
into 4 percent mortgages, basically will provide a crucial stimulus of $50-60
billion in consumption, as well as potential lift of 5-10 percent in terms of
housing prices."
It may be unlikely, because refinancing mortgage loans that
are current would hit the banks pretty hard, but this is a good solution.
To bring up de-leveraging again, between (approximately)
2004 and 2007, the U.S. economy was
leveraged to consistent growth and rising asset values, like homes and
stocks. That means that our spending and investments were all made based on
certain assumptions, like "houses will appreciate 10% a year" or "stock will
rise 8% a year".
Unfortunately, real debt accrued on the basis of an
assumption can be crippling when those assumptions are proved
false.
When valuations fall, the owners must be able to adjust.
Bill Gross' suggestion would help the de-leveraging process by restoring some
balance to debt and income.
OK, let'sget to
your responses.
PV wrote : Actually, I'm suffering as a previous owner
of GM stock, which is now somewhere .40 I think. I've not looked in the last
few days. And I don't even know what the future of owning that is. So
again, we as taxpayers get, because I don't want to use the language it
deserves to be called, garbage in our faces and there's nobody out there that
even cares. The GREED in this nation is deplorable.
Normally, in a bankruptcy proceeding, the old stock will be
cancelled after new shares are issued.
Frank wrote: I think the stock holders of the previous
GM Stock should be offered the same opportunity as the banks to purchase the
IPO shares before the market demand affects the price. They were the ones
that supported GM while GM management ran the company into the
ground.
I agree wholeheartedly.
Glen: I believe GM IPO should be available to all
without need for special relationship with a broker to acquire it. How did
google do it?
Google IPO'd in a Dutch Auction format. This would be a very
good idea for the GM IPO.
Webb wrote: Your idea of taxpayers getting a few shares
is brilliant. What better way to lower the government's rule in our lives and
give us back some of what we lost. (This is irrespective of whether you or I
would buy the new GM stock or not.)
Just plain common sense shows us that any money we send
to Washington gets laundered and reduced in value before any of it gets to intended
parties. In this case the intended parties should have been the ordinary
American taxpayer, but the benefactors will be the cronies of the big
financial firms that fraternize with their cronies in the government. Trickle
down doesn't work this way.
Dale wrote: What about all the share holders who got
left with nothing when GM stock went under? Why should the company be able to
start taking money again? It had how many billion of share outstanding that
went to $0 and now it wants people to trust GM with their investment! Not me,
I would rather invest somewhere else, anywhere else, than give money to GM
again.
What happen to honoring your debts, first? What a
rip-off.
Unfortunately, bankruptcy laws allow individuals and
corporations to write off debt. Donald Trump has done it, and he's forced his
bondholders to restructure by threatening to do it. Global Crossing built out
huge portions of undersea fiber optic lines and then shafted shareholders and
bondholders by declaring bankruptcy.
Poorly invested money often gets lost. If there's one thing
individual investors need to get better at, it's understanding that the
financial markets are about money. Your money.
Eileen wrote: We should all be able to benefit from this
GM IPO. If only GM and the banks profit, then why did we help them out at
all? Yes, I agree that as taxpayers, we should all be entitled, if not to a
few shares in our Tax Return, but to be able to partake in the IPO. It's not
free; we still have to pay for the shares.
As an employee of formerly AIG
now Chartis Insurance, we all lost all of
our AIG Stock, etc, and will never be
able to regain any of the money that we as individuals lost. I am very
resentful of companies that were bailed out and do nothing to repay their
loyal employees, only the important Executives.
The GM IPO should be open to all investors, not to a
select clientele of the 'Big Brokerages". Those are not the people who need
the money. This money will just be added to their existing wealth, to make
them richer. Our system is not fair…
The point that executives thrive while workers suffer may
seem unfair. But that's capitalism…
Michael wrote: As far as investment banks and GM
benefiting from the IPO, well, that is capitalism at its core, raising
capital. If one does not like it, one does
not like capitalism. I have made this point many times
over the years, but
the issue refuses to die. It is usually resurrected when
some blatant
economic injustice, like what we are seeing here, is
unable to be remedied
by the current rules, which are ALWAYS stacked in favor
of the Big Players,
whether the average investor/taxpayer notices or not.
So, business as usual
is nothing unusual.
As far as any taxpayer getting a share or two of GM as a
payout/payback,
that would be nice. But, if the Treasury gets paid back,
isn't that the same
as taxpayers getting paid back, since the Treasury is
where our tax monies
go?
Let's compare apples and apples here. The government has
always been here
to protect monied interests. They are doing that job
right now. To stir up
some resentment over this situation has a distinctly
political, even
Republican, whiff of bias and hypocrisy. Either we let
the markets and the
Feds make their deal, or we break down the financial
Bastille and storm the
place, giving the military/industrial campaign money
machine the boot, and
give bake sales for foreign wars and bank bailouts, not
school supplies.
Right you are, sir. Excellent points.
Ernest wrote: Since the US Treasury (taxpayers) gave GM
approx. $60 Billion and it
appears the IPO will generate only $12 to $16
billion--the deal sucks and the only winners are Obama's political supporters
the UAW and IUE, who now own a piece of GM and for whom their retirees at
Delphi are having the pensions and benefits supported by GM, or more
correctly the taxpayer. The whole deal was just a political payoff and
the US Treasury
aided and abetted in the deal.
The IPO itself will raise $12 to $16 billion. But don't
worry, GM will have plenty more shares to sell in secondary offerings. I
expect the government (taxpayer) will be paid in full.
EH wrote: I don't understand how you think the taxpayer
is left "completely in the lurch" if the treasury is paid back in full. It
seems to me I have been paid back in full. I, the taxpayer, am the treasury.
I, therefore, have been paid back. Where is this imaginary "lurch?"
Of course, you are right. The Treasury will be paid in full.
Jack wrote: You are correct! But what can us lowly
taxpayers do to correct the situation? Nothing until we vote republican and
that won't help either!
It's unfortunate that our elected leaders engender so little
confidence.
Roy yelled: I DON'T UNDERSTAND HOW ANYONE CAN BUY GM STOCK
IF YOU DON'T KNOW HOW MANY
SHARES ARE GOING TO BE OUTSTANDING.
FORD HAS 3.2 BILLION
SHARES AND THEY WILL MAKE AROUND TWO
BUCKS A SHARE THIS YEAR.
WHAT INFO
IS OUT ON GM?
The number of shares outstanding will be included in the IPO
prospectus. But your point is a good one. We can only know the market cap of
GM when we know how many shares will be issued.
Nonetheless, I think the stock runs.
LAT: The GM IPO will generate less than the
government/taxpayer paid bailout which is now around $48B. The balance (to be
determined ) will be written off and comes from the taxpayer. While I did not
want GM to fail, the government should not have showed the overt favoritism
to the union by giving GM the BILLIONS without requiring more equity and/or
debt so that the taxpayer would not have to pay for the bailout. The Obama
administration clearly was using taxpayer money to buy union votes and, in
particular ,UAW members votes.
Currently GM 's interest costs per car are negligible
while FORD's interest cost per car
recently were $331. We all know that FORD
did not get bailed out. FORD, as a result of good financial
management, procured funds and credit lines to finance the
FORD operation through the anticipated
difficult times. GM through its extraordinary inept management was able to
get through the difficult times with a Obama directed bankruptcy resulting in
minimal debt. For this, the taxpayer was given equity in a GM of the future
with no future obligation of paying off the balance remaining of the $48B
bailout. Not a bad deal for GM but a lousy deal for the taxpayer with the
caveat that with GM continues to operate, employ people ,pay their bills, pay
taxes ,etc.
No doubt Ford is a better run company than GM. I would
expect that to be reflected in its valuation.
James: It seems that every day there is some new 'deal'
between the politicians in Washington and the investment banks. Most career politicians have turned their
positions of honor into positions of profit; the latter being their priority
as they advance "their careers"… on the taxpayers backs. Don't let them fool
you, career politicians are on the dole just like every "I won't go out and
get a job when I can just sit back and get a check every month from the
guv'ment" people out there.
I just get agitated (to say the least) when I hear of
our politicians making back door deals like this GM deal. It was setup like
this right from the start. Our 'representatives' have betrayed us and the
office of which there occupy. Honor isn't a part of most politicians
vernacular these days as they've forgotten the bigger picture of why they
hold their office in the first place; to serve their country first and
foremost, not to profit from their office. It is a shame!
I believe that every tax payer should have some benefit
from the GM/Wall Streetbailouts. The problem is that these 'banks', namely GS, JP & Stanley
are simply politicians without the office. Most Washington career
politicians kowtow to these "companies" every day without even a thought
about their honor. Money and personal profit seems to be the only driving
force here. Where are the honorable politicians! Give me a politician who is
not willing to profit from his office and I'll show you an honorable
politician period.
Amadeo wrote: I'm an Italian individual RETIRED
bondholder of old GM. Since July 5, 2008 up to now, I have lost more than 80,000 EURO, just in interests that
should have been matured by my 365,000 EURO of
bonds.
This is a tremendous amount of money for me and my
family, as retired .
I read a lot about progress of new GM, but nothing about
poor people like me and thousands others. I lent all our life savings to one
of bigger company in the first capitalism market of the world, for making it
at work. I did not play to stock market.
I'd like to know what can I expect for having back my
money or part of them, since now I'm FORCED STOCK PLAYER, what I never
desired to become and on which I have absolutely no
experience.
How long must we wait to see some
result?
I'm sorry to hear about your losses, and all the other
losses from bondholders. With common stock, you know you're at risk. But
bonds are normally better protected. As for becoming a stock investor, keep
reading Daily Profit and I'll try and get you up to
speed.
*****Thanks for all your comments. Finally today, I want to
share a recent research paper my staff and I completed on the IPO market. It
was written for SmallCapInvestor PRO members, but I
thought you might enjoy it. You can read it
HERE





Ian Wyatt














