Economic Recovery?

No, the U.S. economy is not getting better. It’s getting worse. Daily Profit has been saying that unemployment will go higher and that we will see many more bankruptcies, especially in retail. But that doesn’t mean it’s any easier to take in the bad news.

The Fed’s About Face

It’s been my contention that oil prices will remain range-bound for the foreseeable future. And the 60 Minutes story I relayed on Monday supports that belief. If oil’s move to $147 was based on more speculation (and manipulation), than it was on true supply and demand issues, then it’s going to be a while before enough demand returns to push oil prices significantly higher.

Stock Valuations

On Wednesday, after a few down days in a row, we tried to sift through the various clues to decide whether the selling we saw was investors taking some profits, or whether we were seeing the start of a more serious sell-off based on lowered earnings guidance and the prospect of unemployment running higher than the current consensus of 9%. 

Reader Mail

As you can imagine, I’m thrilled that people have made some money from Daily Profit stocks. And I want to point out, also, that I’m not in any mood to hold stocks long-term. With the markets stuck in trading ranges and the economic picture still very unclear, I believe it’s prudent to take profits when they’re available.

Commercial Real Estate

First it was residential loans, now commercial loans may be the next to go. A real estate analyst group called Reis Inc. is saying that if commercial rental income drops 5% from current levels, the risk of default for commercial real estate loans will triple.

Reader Mail

It’s been too long since I printed your comments and answered your questions in Daily Profit. After I finished cutting and pasting the most relevant, I came out with 5 pages of reader mail.

The Next Arrow

Bernanke has said it’s time to consider using the second arrow in the Fed’s quiver. That’s the "provision of liquidity" arrow. Maybe the Fed will buy Treasuries. Or maybe the Fed will start doing direct loans to businesses and even consumers. What could go wrong?

Who Can You Trust?

When the financial industry breaks down, there’s no recourse for lost money. It’s just gone. That’s why I continue to stress education and diligence to individual investors. Learn about all the investment possibilities and risks are, and stay vigilant with how you balance risk and reward.