Copper Selloff Potentially Good News For Silver
I'm not heavily invested in copper for the very reason that copper prices tend to rise in line with the stock market. But copper can tell us something about one of the assets I am interested in: silver.
What’s on Your Stock-Shopping List? (XOM, CCJ, NE, FCX, ADM, PCL, CRESY, BHP, RTP)
So when I say that you should make a list of stocks to buy, I’m not saying you should jump into the market and buy them just because they’re down a few points. I’m saying you should name your price, have the capital ready, and jump on the opportunity IF it comes.
And if this correction is even half as big as I expect it to be, just about every boat will get sunk as the tide recedes.
Even big, blue chip stocks that every investor should own will get hammered.
Last year, Exxon-Mobil (NYSE: XOM) shares sold for less than $60 – even cheaper than they were during the depths of the 2008-2009 bear market – briefly selling for less than 10 times earnings.
That’s the kind of company that should be on your shopping list at that kind of price.
How to vote with your dollars
I won’t make the foolish mistake of pushing my personal political views into this letter. My wife calls my ideas crazy, if not offensive and downright unrealistic.
So if my politics elicit disgust and confusion with my own wife, I doubt I’ll have much luck parading them in the pages of the Resource Prospector.
Who you vote for is your business.
But when it comes down to what you should vote for, I have a few things to say on the subject.
I’m talking about the way that we all conduct our personal investment portfolios, as well as the goods and services we buy.
I’ve long believed that these everyday activities are a much more important ongoing vote than any one you cast into a ballot box.
The only cheap fertilizer company
Last week fertilizer stocks all surged in unison after the world's largest mining company BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) tried, and failed, to acquire the world's largest potassium company Potash Corp. (NYSE: POT).
Right now, there's only one company in the sector that's still (relatively) inexpensive. More on that company in a minute…
First, a little tooting of my own horn: just over a month ago, I recommended you pick up shares of another fertilizer company (now the second largest) -Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS).
Here's what I said on July 22:
What the Potash Buyout Tells Us
The bidding war for fertilizer company Potash Corp of Saskatchewan (NYSE:POT) is getting very interesting. Last week, the company rejected a $34 billion buyout bid from mining giant BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP). BHP countered by saying it would make the bid a $38 billion hostile bid, which means BHP takes its offer directly to the shareholders.
To counter this move, Potash Corp has been in talks with other companies to see if they can get the buyout bid higher. China's Sinochem and Brazil's Vale have been mentioned as having interest. And Potash's board is already saying that a "superior offer" is expected. That's good, because Potash Corp. currently has a market cap of $44 billion, and rising.
Now, this buyout process is interesting in its own merits. As a company, Potash is a cash cow, throwing off $1.42 billion in net earnings and $2.58 billion in operating cash flow on $4.9 billion in revenues. One might look at the forward P/E of 19 and conclude the stock was expensive. But when you consider that earnings would pay for the buyout in less than 20 years (based on forward estimates), maybe it's not so expensive.
Pushing on a String
Our discussion of the GM IPO has been timely: the company filed with the SEC for its IPO yesterday. Now, we can answer some of the looming questions.
First of all, it sounds as though GM will not issue new shares, but rather simply sell more of the existing ones. That means the current common shareholders will not be wiped out. It also means that individual investors will be able to buy GM shares on the first day they are available.
The world’s most profitable agriculture company
I hate falling into the trap of simply responding to the hottest news headlines - because very few people get rich by reacting to headlines and pulling the trigger on investments based on "hot" trends in the market.
At this point, computers can wipe the floor with most any day-trader, so if you think you can buy yesterday's news and still eke out a profit, you're probably wrong.
In the past couple weeks agriculture has been the hot topic on everyone's mind. First, fires in Russia caused wheat prices to double in less than a month as Vladimir Putin banned Russian wheat exports. In sympathy, many other crop commodities rose in price as well. Then yesterday, BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) the world's largest mining company, put in a failed bid to buy Potash Corp (NYSE: POT) the world's largest fertilizer company.
How Do You Feel Abou the GM IPO?
You've no doubt heard about the wildfires ravaging
Russia's countryside. These fires have
seriously impacted Russia's wheat
harvest, and have sent wheat prices soaring around the world.
This morning, mining company BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP) offered $39 billion, or $130 a
share for the world's largest fertilizer company, Potash Corp of
Saskatchewan (NYSE:POT).
The World’s Deadliest Commodity
Right now, I'm bullish on many things - but lead might be the most contrarian commodity I'm bullish on.
That's why it pays to be a commodity investor, because we're still ahead of the crowds; we're contrarian.
Most, if not all investors, are heavily into broad index mutual funds. They've been buying the market, and hoping that it will turn around.
I'll keep my 'hope' for my favorite sports teams (go Philadelphia!), and instead use my brain to find investments that are forward looking. What has worked in the past might again work in the future - but not simply because it worked in the past.
And since we're coming up on 4th of July weekend, I'm looking for patriotic investments, like lead.
Inflation bet on BHP Billiton (BHP)
"Longer-term, I have no doubt that a ruinous inflationary cycle is on the way," says Jim Powell. In Global Changes & Opportunities, he takes a look at BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP).
"Banks are currently hoarding the funds they are receiving from the Fed. That practice will end once the economic outlook improves and lenders feel it’s safe to make credit available again.
"When the vaults swing open, I think the flood of money will trigger the sharpest inflationary run-up we have ever seen.
"Deflation has gained so much momentum that I think it will continue – and probably get worse – for several months.
"However, being unprepared for inflation (or a possible dollar devaluation) is a much bigger threat to your wealths. That’s why I urge you to make additional inflation investments now while prices are still attractive.
"One stock that looks very good to me is BHP Billiton. The company pays a 2.7% dividend from earnings that come primarily from foreign markets.
"The offshore exposure gives U.S. investors at least a partial hedge against a falling dollar. The prospect of long-term capital gains sweetens the appeal of this Australia-based blue chip company."
A 34% gain in seven days
Stocks climbed higher into the midday despite a credit rating cut for large-cap benchmark General Electric Co. (NYSE:GE).
At 12:45 pm ET, the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) is up 11.02, or 3.01%, to 377.32. The Dow is up 1.8%, finally above the 7,000 mark, and the S&P 500 is up 1.94% to 735.39.
The cut on GE’s credit rating did little spark fear in investors, who had expected deeper cuts for the large-cap company. GE is currently up 12%. Small-cap automaker General Motors (NYSE:GM) is also helping to buoy the Dow this afternoon, after GM’s CEO reported the company will not need the $2 billion loan for March that it previously requested from the U.S. government.
Earlier this morning unemployment and retail sales numbers were released, causing stocks to open lower. The Labor Department said first-time requests for unemployment insurance increased to 654,000 from the previous week's figure of 639,000, above analysts' expectations. The government also reported that retail sales fell in February for the seventh time in the past eight months. Retail sales edged down 01% last month, less severe than the 0.5% drop that economists had expected.
A 34% gain in seven days
As promised, SmallCapInvestor PRO readers took their gains on Arena Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq:ARNA) on Wednesday. The final haul was 34%. Not bad for holding a stock for seven days. I expect we’ll re-buy Arena if it drops to $4.50 over the next few days.
I hope Small-Cap Daily readers were able to lock in some gains on the stocks we recently recommended here.
*****The next few days should be interesting for the stock market. I’m a bit surprised that the major indices finished in the green on Wednesday. I’ll be more surprised if they finish with gains today.
Congress will be discussing mark-to-market rules today. It’s a safe bet that some kind of easing of these rules will happen. That would essentially buy the banks some time that could be better spent than writing down assets and taking losses. And . . .
Dow and Russell 2000 drop
With little news to occupy investors’ minds, the markets reacted to news that Australia’s BHP Billiton Ltd. (NYSE: BHP), the world’s largest mining company, is renewing its $40 billion bid for Pittsburgh, Pa.-based aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA), according to press reports.
Russell 2000 and Dow flat
Shares of Encysive Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Nasdaq: ENCY) are plummeting following news that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has declined to approve its drug for the treatment of pulmonary arterial hypertension. Encysive received a letter from the FDA stating that the development program for the drug Thelin does not show the effectiveness needed for approval, the Houston-based company said after the close on Friday, June 15.



















