There's a lot more on the line than Tom Brady's place in NFL history, Eli Manning's status as an elite quarterback, and Madonna's relevance as a pop icon.

Today you can buy a 10-year Treasury bond and get a 3.11% yield - but wouldn't you rather own shares in a company that pays a better yield, and has the potential to increase in share price?

I usually try to find companies that benefit directly from higher commodity prices, but in this case, I've found a company that could benefit despite higher commodity prices...

This company pays a 3.4% dividend - and better yet it has the ability to raise or lower prices at will. That's because it takes one of the cheapest commodities on the planet (corn) and turns it into an easily consumable good - with a price markup in the triple digits. Whether you believe we're headed into deflation or inflation, pricing control is hugely important.

More on this pricing control in a minute...

Most people buy Treasuries precisely because they want safety.

There's an Egyptian proverb that says, "The mouth of a perfectly happy man is filled with beer."

And if you're like me, you spent many days and nights of your youth as a perfectly happy man. I'd like to invest in the likelihood that tomorrow's youth will continue drinking prodigious quantities of beer.

Okay, so beer technically isn't a commodity. It's a product - technically any good that's manufactured - but there are some investment implications that relate directly to the prices of certain commodities. Could they be the best "commodities?" I guess that's a matter of opinion...

There are many commodities that go into making beer - the most important being water, but also barley and hops.

To back up for a second: the thesis of this letter, one that I'm constantly re-checking and analyzing for cracks and leaks, is that commodity prices will advance while the broad market in stocks continues to waver, and world currencies suffer from inflation.

Small-cap stocks endured another sizable decline Monday, pulled down by tension over the health of the financial arena at a time when the economy is already struggling with rising unemployment, slumping housing markets and soaring energy costs. The Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) shed 10.45, or 1.55%, to 664.50, the third lowest daily close since mid-March.

The closing slide in small caps was a stark difference from this morning as the market appeared poised to begin the week with a relief rally. Stock index futures jumped some 1.6% during overnight action as investors embraced a plan by government authorities to shore up the balance sheet — and market confidence — in government-sponsored mortgage giants Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE). However, that overnight rally failed to gain traction relatively quickly once the market opened today, and a wave of selling swept through banking stocks, especially within the regional banking sector and smaller banks, which took a toll on small-cap index products. Despite opening up amid 20%-plus gains this morning, FNM and FRE eventually closed down 4.2% and 5.8%, respectively.

Elsewhere on the banking front, National City Corp. (NYSE:NCC) plunged 17% after trading was halted briefly on concerns about unusual trading activity. NCC was downgraded by analysts, and the stock dropped anchor, as the unsettling tide of selling coursed through financials a day after IndyMac Bancorp Inc. (NYSE:IMB) failed, becoming the third-largest U.S. bank failure on record.

There was some sense that investors are beginning to fret about all the special bail-out programs needed to avert systemic risk on the financial landscape. After all, there are only so many rabbits that magicians at the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department can pull out of their hats. What’s more, there are some concerns that these recovery efforts could flood the debt market with so much paper that supply issues could hamper funding, or even that the world could balk at “being the buyer of last resort for U.S. government debt,” as noted in a research report . . .

After opening higher on the government’s plan to ease going concerns surrounding Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE), small caps came under pressure 30 minutes into the session and remain submerged midday, as apprehension concerning the financial sector took the forefront.

At 1:23 p.m. ET., the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) skidded 11.29, or 1.67%, to 663.66, while the Dow lost 58.54, or 0.53%, to 11,042.

In an effort to restore confidence in the nation’s largest mortgage insurers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve devised a plan over the weekend in which an increase in a treasury line of credit would be extended temporarily. Additionally, as part of the plan the Fed would take on a consultant role. After both mortgage giants saw their share prices lopped off by some 45% last week, midday, Fannie shares were off a slight 2.44% midday, while Freddie stock has reversed course to slip 4.65%. 

However, the plan constructed to pacify an otherwise panicked market soon gave way to concerns about the government’s ability to battle further financial debacles. Investors worry how many potentially more innovative or practical backstops the government has up its sleeve. 

The plan comes on the heels of IndyMac’s (NYSE:IMB) failure on Friday. IndyMac was repossessed by the federal regulators after one of the largest thrift/mortgage banks failed to cover a run by depositors, becoming the third largest banking failure in U.S. history.

In corporate news, the nation’s largest brewer Anheuser-Busch Co. (NYSE:BUD) said that it will embrace a takeover from Belgian brewer InBev NV for approximately $52 billion, one of the few positive market indicators of the day. Merger activity typically creates bullish momentum among investors, as seen in the wake of the booming deal days of 2007. If there are deals in the making among large caps, . . .

Small-cap stocks dipped into the red about 30 minutes after opening solidly higher, pulled down by ongoing jitters in the financial arena despite hope stirred by a Treasury Department plan to help shore up troubled government-sponsored mortgage giants Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE). At 10:00 a.m. ET, the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) was down 3.73, or 0.55%, at 671.22.

The rescue proposal for GSEs was a scenario that reminded many investors of the stock market bottom that accompanied the bailout of Bear Stearns. There was a hope among many that the government would ensure the health of FNM and FRE, a calming influence in the wake of last week’s failure at IndyMac (NYSE:IMB), which became the third largest banking failure in U.S. history when the bank could not cover a run by depositors. Shortly after the open, FNM shares were up 22%, while FRE stock was up 17%. The advance in GSEs was expected to provide a lift to the overall financial sector, but that wasn’t playing out in early trading today.

Anheuser-Busch Co. (NYSE:BUD) announced that it would embrace a takeover from Belgian brewer InBev NV for approximately $52 billion, which is yet another large M&A deal put together in recent days. Merger activity typically creates bullish momentum among investors, and if there are deals to be done in large caps, then there are also bargains to be found in the small-cap arena. BUD shares were up only 1.2% shortly after the open as this takeover has been in the news and priced into the stock for weeks now.

The overnight bounce in U.S. equities pulled the greenback along for the ride, halting a dramatic slide in the buck that hit a crescendo late last week as the GSE crisis spiked. Shortly after the open, the dollar was up 0.2% against the yen, and almost . . .

Small-cap stocks were expected to jump higher on the opening, lifted by a government rescue plan for embattled mortgage lending giants Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE) and by a large acquisition of iconic American brewer Anheuser-Busch Co. (NYSE:BUD). The Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) was up over 1% in overnight trading, which suggests an opening near 682.

The Treasury Department this weekend announced plans to temporarily increase credit to the government-sponsored credit firms (GSEs) in addition to other measures to ensure the health of FNM and FRE. As a result, stock in the two firms rallied aggressively overnight, and the move appeared to calm stock markets, which also were climbing ahead of the regular stock market open.

Still, the failure late last week of IndyMac (NYSE:IMB) and the freefall in GSE stocks underscores the precarious position right now for the banking system. IMB’s failure ranks as the 3rd largest in history.

In addition to the GSE rescue plan, investors were heartened this morning by the announcement of an acquisition of Budweiser by Belgian firm InBev NV for . . .

Small-cap stocks are expected to open higher as investors digest critical inflation information, while mulling over a mild overnight dip in crude oil prices and a firm tone in the U.S. dollar ahead of consumer sentiment data later this morning. The Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) is expected to open right around the 723 mark.

The CPI headline figure came in at 0.6%, just slightly above the forecast for a rise of 0.5%. The “core” figure, which excludes food and energy prices, was in line with expectations at 0.2%. The year-over-year CPI figure was at 4.2%, above the 3.9% forecast. Stock index futures initially pulled back off modest overnight gains immediately after the CPI report was released, but then recovered to grind out new after-hours highs. The Michigan sentiment survey comes out around 10:00 a.m. ET, and could stir volatility for morning stock market trading.

Crude oil futures were off moderately into the stock market opening, hovering near $136 dollars a barrel as the U.S. dollar was at five-week lows against the euro, up about 0.7%, and rose about 0.3% versus the yen to the highest point since mid-February.

Early this morning, the market digested fresh dour news on the housing front as foreclosures in May were up 48% from last year, and up 7% from April, according to RealtyTrac’s U.S. Foreclosure Market Report.

Today marks an important session for small caps from a charting standpoint. A weekly close below 720.50 would suggest an extension of the recent breakdown . . .

Small-cap stocks limped into the close, barely clutching onto a smidgeon of the steep morning rise tied to stout monthly retail sales figures. The Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) closed up 1.95, or 0.27%, at 719.84, but the advance felt somewhat hollow considering small caps shed 10 handles off the highs.

The day started off in fine fashion for the bulls, as the retail sales report topped analyst forecasts, providing further enthusiasm that was already in place from soft crude oil prices and a firm dollar. The overnight dip in crude oil turned out to be short-lived, however, as black gold pushed back near $137 per barrel in the afternoon, charging about $3 dollars off the levels seen into the stock market open. In addition, new crop corn futures soared to new record highs as flooding damages crop conditions in the heartland.

Despite the recovery in crude oil prices, energy stocks were on the defensive today following a downgrade on energy and an upgrade in the financial arena by Morgan Stanley analysts. Although that recommendation seems to buck the ongoing trends, it worked well today.

Some of the morning excitement in stocks was stoked by fresh news on the proposed acquisition of Anheuser-Busch Cos. Inc. (NYSE:BUD) by Belgian firm InBev, which reportedly has tendered a deal worth $65 dollars a share, or approximately $46.3 billion. Anheuser, the quintessential iconic American brewery, controls nearly half the U.S. beer market, including the top seller, Bud Light. M&A talk tends to lift investor psychology, and big-cap deals are also supportive to small caps on the theory that if there are deals to be done in large caps, there are certainly even more deals to be done for small caps.

Speaking of M&A activity, the late slide in stocks off the highs was also powered by news that talks between Yahoo! (Nasdaq:YHOO) and Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq:MSFT) broke down without any deal being struck. Shares in Yahoo tumbled about 10% on the news, dragging down large-cap index products and causing . . .

After a drop in crude oil prices and positive retail sales data caused a buying frenzy during the morning session, small caps have calmed in afternoon trading. At 2:30 p.m. ET, the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) was up 6.54, or 0.91%, at 724.42.

U.S. retail sales rose 1% in May, which beat the expected rise of 0.5%. Analysts saw the jump in retail sales as a sign that American consumers were spending their $50 billion in stimulus checks. The positive sales data overshadowed a rise in unemployment claims, which climbed 25,000 to 384,000. It marked the highest point for continuing claims since February 2004. Also, the import price data hit the forecast on the nose, but it still reflected the largest three-month increase since October 1990.

The Commerce Department also said business inventories in April rose by 0.5% in April, which doubled the 0.2% jump clocked in March.

In Thursday afternoon trading, crude oil is down to $135.12 a barrel. The U.S. dollar is up against both the yen and the euro.

Further fueling the bulls was news before the opening that Belgium beer company InBev NV launched an unsolicited bid to acquire Budweiser (NYSE:BUD) for $46.4 billion, or $65 a share or a 14% premium compared with Tuesday’s closing price.

Broad market sectors on the rise this morning included restaurant services, home improvement retailers, brewers, investment services and consumer financial services. Sectors attracting sellers include non-cyclical consumer crops, gold and . . .

Small-cap stocks shot higher on the opening, lifted by surprisingly stout retail sales, and an overnight slide in crude oil prices. At 10:01 a.m. ET, the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) was up 10.99, or 1.53%, at 728.87.

Business inventories data came out at 10:00 a.m. ET and were above the forecast at 0.5%, but had little impact on the market, overshadowed by the earlier retail sales release.

It’s worth noting that the market was already in rally mode well before the retail sales report topped the forecast. Buying enthusiasm was fueled overnight by merger and acquisition talk surrounding Budweiser (NYSE:BUD), by a decline in crude oil prices and a rally in the U.S. dollar. Budweiser shares were up 6% shortly after the opening.

The headline retail sales figure came in up 1%, which was well clear of the forecast for a rise of 0.5%, and the ex-autos figure also topped the forecast, coming in at 1.2%, compared with the forecast of 0.7%. The upside surprise in retail sales was enough to overshadow a jump in unemployment claims, which climbed to 384,000 compared with the forecast of 370,000. It marked the highest point for continuing claims since February 2004. Also, the import price data hit the forecast on the nose, but it still reflected the largest three-month increase since October 1990.

By the time the market opened, immediate gains from the retail sales report were already trimmed as news of a shakeup in the power structure at Lehman Bros. (NYSE:LEH) pulled down the market, at least initially. Lehman Bros. shares were off about 5% in erratic trading shortly after the open, but bounced back into the green about 25 minutes after the open. Lehman shares have been sinking of late, and collapsed about 50% in just four weeks, while keeping the credit crunch fears on the front burner.

Despite all the negative news surrounding Lehman and ongoing worries about the credit crunch, Morgan Stanley analysts issued an upgrade for financial . . .

The Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) is expected to open slightly lower, pulled down by weakness in European shares overnight, and by analyst downgrades in the banking sector. The Russell 2000 and S&P 500 futures were both off about 0.1% this morning, which would translate to an opening near 723.50.

Bank of America trimmed its outlook for some key firms in the banking sector, including Lehman Bros. (NYSE:LEH), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), all three of which were trading lower in after-hours action.

As usual, crude oil remains a key focus for equities to start the holiday-shortened week. Crude oil prices jumped back up near $133 dollars a barrel overnight, lifted by unrest in Africa, which could curb supplies.

Deutsche Bank lowered its rating overnight on ...

Small-cap stocks opened lower and remained under pressure all day Friday, unable to shake off concerns about surging energy prices. The Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) shed 8.91, or 1.22%, to 724.10. For the week, small caps tumbled 17.07, the second-largest one-week point decline since the market bottomed early in early March.

Equities investors truly became fixated this week on the crude oil market, and with good reason. Earlier this week, crude oil futures charged past $135 dollars a barrel, and pump prices in some U.S. metropolitan areas pushed beyond $4 dollars a gallon, a sobering psychological benchmark in front of the summer holiday and driving season. Crude oil gained about 1% in value Friday, which kept equity bulls in hibernation.

Not only does the relentless rise in energy prices blunt consumer spending power, but it also raises input costs for many businesses and tightens margins. The airline industry is the current poster child for that vicious cycle, and many airline stocks were hammered again this week. The AMEX Airline Index closed out the week at new lows, and is trading just above $18, compared with a peak in January 2007 above $66. A powerful glimpse of that slide can be seen in small-cap stock US Airways (NYSE:LCC), which tumbled 18% Friday and is now a $4.25 stock, down from $16 in February, and a peak of almost $63 just a couple of years ago.

This morning’s existing home sales report appeared to serve up some needed good news when the headline figure came in at 4.89 million units sold, which topped the median forecast for a rise of 4.85 million units. However, the rosy headline figure came with hidden thorns, as the inventory of homes for sale swelled to record levels. “The stark inventory situation implies that additional price declines cannot be ruled . . .

Pro beach volleyball has become big business and one little-known micro cap represents a pure-play on this growing trend in sports entertainment.

Los Angeles, Calif.-based AVP, Inc. (OTC: AVPI) is the producer and marketer of the AVP Pro Beach Volleyball Tour, the largest and most well-regarded national touring series in the sport. AVP has exclusive contracts with 200 of the top American male and female volleyball players, including Olympic medalists. The size of the company’s tour has more than doubled since 2001 with the popularity of the sport having been enhanced in recent years by improved TV coverage on NBC and Fox. AVP staged 18 outdoor events across the U.S. last summer and, in a move to capitalize on the sport’s rising popularity, will kickoff a new 19 event winter tour this January. 

Reorganized in 2001 under a new management team led by sports agent and CEO Leonard Armato, AVP’s revenue rose to $21.5 million in 2006 from less than $5 million in 2002. The explosive top-line growth and near breakeven results last year prompted a buyout offer in April from Shamrock Capital Growth Fund, a unit of Shamrock Holdings, a private equity investor with over $2 billion in assets under management. Shamrock, the investment arm of the Roy E. Disney family, has a long history of successful media and entertainment related investments.

The April buyout offer at $1.23 a share represented an 18% discount to the $1.50 a share that AVP was trading at directly ahead of the offer. The low-ball price was met soon after with strong resistance by several major AVP shareholders. Under the terms of the Shamrock deal, AVP CEO Armato would have retained his management position and “rolled-over” his 30% ownership stake in AVP into the new Shamrock-controlled company. AVP officially announced in early September that it and Shamrock had mutually decided to terminate the proposed deal.

Since that time, shares in lightly-traded AVP have continued to drift lower. At a recent price of $1.02 a share, the stock is now down over 30% since April. While the pulled buyout offer has certainly weighed on the stock over the short term, looking out over the longer term, this pullback could represent an attractive entry point for aggressive investors. After all, Shamrock wouldn’t have made its offer unless it saw good long-term value in the name. Plus, AVP CEO Armato likely wouldn’t hold onto his hefty stake in AVP unless he saw good things ahead.

The brewing industry has gone through a sobering period as American consumers’ tastes in alcoholic beverages gravitated toward spirits. But in the last few years, Boston Beer Co. Inc. (NYSE: SAM) and other craft brewers have experienced resurgence, despite the growing global demand for liquor.

With the prime summertime beer-drinking months just getting under way, Boston Beer hopes it has the product mix to quench the thirsts of finicky consumers seeking higher-end brews, in order to spur its sales and maintain some heady growth.

Boston Beer was one of the pioneers in the craft beer business. Jim Koch founded the maker of Samuel Adams brand beer in 1984, based on recipes handed down through his family. The company quickly grew from a Northeast U.S. novelty, and went public in late 1995. Company chairman Koch continues to serve as spokesman, evangelist – and clerk, according to the Boston Beer website.

In the Boston Beer 2006 annual report, Koch and president and CEO Martin Roper wrote to investors that 2007 would be an important year for the company, that it’s “an interesting point in our growth.”

They noted that 35 years ago, the craft beer market barely existed, with domestic brands accounting for 98% of sales. Better beers (including crafts) have grown to 18% of U.S. sales, regular-strength domestics have evaporated to 33%, while light beers now represent about half the market. “Today Samuel Adams has just (one half percent) of that total U.S. beer market, which gives us room for growth in the only segment of the industry that is on the rise. We are not content to ride this wave, however, we are committed to help create the wave and reinforce its momentum.”