Is Ron Paul Right?

It’s the first day of the second quarter, and also April Fool’s day, so
be on your guard. The first day of the month has been an overwhelmingly
bullish day ever since the stock market bottomed in March 2009. And the
first day of a new quarter has also been bullish, as new money gets put
to work by mutual funds.

Today we also have a strong non-farm payroll number to propel stocks
higher.

The economy added 216,000 new jobs in March. This is a net number that
includes job losses at the government level. Private hiring has now
topped 200,000 jobs for two months running, for the first time since
2006.

The government published unemployment rate fell to 8.8%. And while that’s
still unacceptably high, it’s an improvement.

Whether or not we can give the Fed any credit for helping the jobs market
with QE2, today’s jobs number increases the odds that the Fed will stand
down in June, and not move directly into another round of stimulus QE3.

And while we’ve discussed the end of QE2 as a potentially bearish
catalyst for stocks, it could also be considered a sign of confidence in
the U.S. economy. I know that might seem like a stretch, and I still
expect there to be some kind of correction ahead of June (sell in May?).