Chris Preston

Uranium Stocks Continue Recovery

It has been a rough year for uranium stocks, but demand for the controversial metal is starting to resurface.

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Jason Cimpl

European Optimism Leads Bulls Higher


The market was slammed yet another time yesterday. Although unlike Thursday and Friday, the indices recovered into the close.

Once again financials led the charge lower and the big banks like JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and Citigroup (NYSE:C) were down 3%. Energy and technology components were also hurt and stocks like Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and IBM (NYSE:IBM) were down 1% and Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), Apache (NYSE:APA), Continental Resources (NYSE:CLR), which we're short, and Halliburton (NYSE:HAL) were down 2%.
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Kevin McElroy

China’s Coal and How to Invest

Chinese President Hu Jintao meets with President Obama today in Washington DC.

The two presidents are supposed to have a private lunch and then discuss a variety of topics including trade, military, North Korea, Iran, human rights, the dollar, the yuan and the weather, no doubt.

As the east coast is being hammered with a wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain, snow and ice, you might expect the topic of coal to come up.

After all, a majority of electricity in the United States and China is provided by coal. And for the past few years, China has started to import coal - mostly from Australia.

As a result, China’s domestic coal companies are practically minting money. They can’t produce coal fast enough, because no matter how much coal they bring to market, there’s a near-guarantee that they’ll be able to sell it for top dollar.

They don’t have to worry about anything except for increasing production.

And now, with floods in Australia, the amount of coal being shipped to China has decreased substantially.

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Kevin McElroy

“Food riots in America? You’re crazy…”

Just to be clear, “lexicon” is a fancy word that means vocabulary – and “food riot” is a phrase that refers to a group of angry, hungry, violent people who destroy property because they feel (among other things) that food prices are too high.

And yes, to answer any questions from the peanut gallery in my office, I do believe we’ll see food riots in these United States of America sometime in the next year and a half.

I’m belaboring this point because I want to be crystal clear with this prediction, not because I especially like making predictions. Quite the opposite, actually – I detest making predictions because it’s so easy to be wrong on the scope, specifics, time-frame, location, etc.

In that vein, if I am wrong about this prediction, it will probably be a matter of my timing rather than anything else.

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Ian Wyatt

Is There a Correction Coming?

2011 is starting off with a bang. Stocks are up big today. And the catalysts are coming from every angle. China's manufacturing index is expanding, despite measures to slow inflation, Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) settled some of its mortgage put-back exposure, oil is higher as growth expectations improve, price targets for Apple are higher, and China has said it will continue to buy Spanish debt.

Each of these news items I've listed addresses an important point of uncertainty. If China can grow its economy at the same time it attacks inflation, then the global economy continues to enjoy Chinese demand for raw materials. That's a clear benefit for resource economies like Australia and Canada, and even benefits American and German exports.

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Kevin McElroy

The New American Export Story

No one is following this story. The Great Lakes Seaway News actually wrote a story about how no one is following this story.

While Ben Bernanke continues to gift billions of dollars to the banking industry for no defensible or discernable reason, there are actual, real-life industries in the United States that are producing real-life stuff that we all need.

While President Obama wrangles with Congress to pay unemployed people $150 billion not to work over the next year, a small group of American farming and shipping firms are feeding the world from the sweat of their brow.

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Jason Cimpl

Black Friday

Reviewing a quick run-down of the retail industry revealed a few great buys. First
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Kevin McElroy

Questions About Uranium Stocks

Whenever I write about uranium, I receive a flood of reader mail asking about uranium supply, reactor openings/closings, uranium explorers, different uranium isotopes for fuel, etc.

I rarely get many questions about gold, silver, oil or anything else I write about on a regular basis, but uranium always seems to do it.

So when I wrote about Cameco Corp. (NYSE: CCJ) last week, I knew what I was getting myself into.

Before I answer some specific reader questions, I’d like to explore the reasons why you and I seem to find uranium so compelling. (By the way, if you want to ask me about uranium, or any other commodity you can email me at editorial@resourceprospector.com)

The most obvious reason might be the worst one: the high-flying gains from uranium’s last bull-run are still fresh in our minds. Uranium quadrupled in price between January 2006 and August 2007. Many rather ordinary uranium stocks quadrupled - or more - in the same span of time. Picking a losing uranium stock in that period was really difficult, if not impossible.

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Kevin McElroy

Oil stocks in a recession

Yesterday I discussed the overwhelming importance of oil and its implications for your investments.

My most important advice in yesterday's issue was buried down at the bottom, so you might have missed it. Here it is to recap:

"if I can leave you with one thing to keep in mind, it's to remember the importance of oil - even for non-commodity investments. You need to look at all of your investments, from stocks even down to bonds and savings accounts, and think about how oil price fluctuations could affect the bottom line of the underlying assets and businesses you're invested in."

I also promised that I would look into some specific oil investments to buy under the assumption that the recession has resumed or is on the horizon.

During a recession, oil prices tend to sag due to decreased demand for oil, which doesn't usually bode well for most types of oil companies.

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Kevin McElroy

McElroy's Certainty Principle

Whereas the scientist Dr. Werner Heisenberg is famous for his Uncertainty Principle of quantum physics, I'm somewhat less notorious for my Certainty Principle of investing. But I have one thing going for me: my principle is a lot more likely to help you and me make some money. I won't win any Nobel Prizes, but I might be able to retire a decade earlier.

I bring up quantum physics, because much of that field is based on the idea that you can't know everything all at once. Making meaningful observations about a given particle entails giving up knowledge of either its position or its velocity/direction - both of which are important for any physics problem.

In the investment world - unlike quantum physics, we can know with a great deal of certainty the position and direction of a company.

Because investing is different than quantum physics, thankfully.

We can know the direction and position of a publicly traded company because these companies are required to accurately report these facts in quarterly and annual reports.

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Ian Wyatt

The Oil Fallacy

Oil is holding above $86 a barrel. And yet analysts still cling to the notion that oil should be driven by the U.S. economy.   

 

Here’s a quote from a report from Frankfurt’s Commerzbank:  We think that the oil price increase is only of temporary nature, since it is driven by liquidity rather than by fundamental factors…The recent increase in correlation between oil prices and equity markets, which has now reached unprecedentedly high levels underscores our view.   

 

I’m not sure how Commerzbank comes to the conclusion that oil prices are somehow not connected to fundamentals, but, instead, are connected to the stock market. But this stance is highly suspect. 

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Ian Wyatt

Sovereign Wealth Fund and Commercial Real Estate

The AP is reporting that China has trimmed its holdings of U.S. Treasury’s by $5.8 billion in January. I’m sure members of the doom and gloom economic faction will point to this as solid evidence that the U.S. is losing its ability to fund spending and is inching ever closer to default.   

 

In my opinion, this line of thinking is completely unrealistic.   

 

China still holds $889 billion in T-bills. It’s clearly not “dumping” American debt. And as I discussed last week, there is evidence that China is moving to more direct investments in the U.S.  

 

China’s state-run investment company, the China Investment Corporation (CIC), is already involved in a buyout offer for shopping mall owner General Growth Properties (NYSE:GGP) through Brookfield Asset Management (NYSE:BAM)

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Jennifer Schonberger

Alvarion penetrates Australian market through Allegro deal

Provider of WiMAX and wireless broadband solutions Alvarion Ltd. (Nasdaq: ALVR) announced before the opening bell Tuesday that wireless broadband internet server provider Allegro Networks will use its BreezeMAX system for the first WiMAX deployment in Australia.

This deal allows Alvarion to penetrate the Australian market by offering Australian businesses across the country access to a high-speed network services through its WiMAX product.

“WiMAX has a key role in establishing a robust, affordable, and efficient broadband network in Australia,” said Ted Pretty, Chairman of Allegro. “Businesses in regional Australia cannot afford to wait any longer to receive advanced broadband services. Alvarion was the one company able to meet our deadlines for true WiMAX infrastructure while maintaining the required quality of service.”

“Being chosen by a leading wireless ISP further demonstrates Australia’s commitment to WiMAX.” said CEO of Alvarion Tzvika Friedman. “We are pleased to be selected by Allegro Networks for their first commercial WiMAX deployment...”

Allegro said it will seek wholesale access to the backhaul fiber and other network elements of the Optus Elders consortium (OPEL). Australia’s federal government awarded these networks almost a billion dollars as part of the government’s “Broadband Connect” project for Australia. Australia’s government just recently jump started a broadband network with wireless and fiber technologies through private funding.

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