Investors tend to think rosy thoughts when times are good, yet they are quick to expect the worst. The fact is that most investors get things wrong.

Buying shares of BP wasn’t the popular trade. It was the opposite of the comfortable move to make at the time. I know I felt icky and weird even talking about it. I was one of very few prognosticators making the same recommendation.

And right now, I wouldn’t call BP a buy.

In fact, I wouldn’t recommend buying shares of any of the “blue-chip” oil companies right now. Even though some of them are trading at relatively cheap valuations, they’ve all had an amazing run over the past four to six months.

Today, oil is selling at its 52 week highs.

But one of my favorite ways to invest in rising oil prices is still only slightly more expensive than it was four months ago.

To call the explosion of the Deepwater Horizon oil rig and the subsequent well damage that’s allowed millions of gallons of oil spill into the Gulf of Mexico a tragedy is an understatement.   

Eleven men died when that rig exploded on April 20th. And now, critical fisheries along the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi are being destroyed. The commercial fishing industry in these states is threatened and a way of life for these fishermen may be coming to an end.   

An oil slick is reportedly nine miles off the coast of Pensacola.   

BP itself is under siege, too. The stock is in a virtual freefall as repeated efforts to cap the leak have failed. It could be months before the leak is stopped. Costs to the company could hit $22 billion. And that’s if BP didn’t do anything wrong. 

I really, really don’t want to talk about the euro today. And I think I’ve made myself quite clear about oil prices. (In fact, I just recommended another top-notch Bakken oil producer to Energy World Profits readers last Thursday that should be good for a quick 30% gain as well as outstanding long-term growth. You can learn more HERE.)   

Today, there’s something else on my mind.   

As usual, there’s a wide range of debate over whether stocks are overpriced or not. The Wall Street Journal says that the price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is currently 19. Based on forward earnings estimates, it’s 14. Clearly, a p/e of 19 is above the historical average of approximately 16. And the forward p/e of 14 is below the historic average. It’s likely that the truth lies somewhere in the middle. I have no problem stating that stocks appear more or less fairly valued at the moment.