Ian Wyatt

Reader Mail

Stocks continue their upward climb. As TradeMaster's Jason Cimpl  told us earlier in the week, the S&P 500 has kept its date with 1,150. And it looks poised to move higher.   

 

The retail sales data from February is positive. Despite two crippling blizzards on the East Coast, sales still rose 0.3%. And if you strip out autos, sales were up 0.8%.   

 

Normally, it makes no sense to ignore auto sales because they are obviously an important gauge of consumer spending, but in light of the recalls from Toyota (NYSE:TM), it’s reasonable to assume that some auto sales were simply postponed due to the uncertainty.    

 

Sales were especially strong for electronics and at restaurants and bars. Sounds like consumers are celebrating their new iPhone purchase over a beer. That’s probably led to a surge in drunk-texting.   

 

Retail sales from January have now been revised lower two times, from an initial reading of +0.5% to the current +0.1%. Funny thing about this rally – economic data is consistently revised lower, and no one cares. The only exception I can think of is 4Q 2009 GDP, which was actually revised slightly higher.  

 

Economic data has been improving. But it says more about the bullishness of investors that they are consistently overlooking negative data. That gives me more confidence that we will be seeing new highs for the major indices soon.   

 

Now, let’s wrap up our week with some Reader Mail… 

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Ian Wyatt

China to the Rescue

For the past year, the fate of commercial real estate in the U.S. has been a popular talking point for economic bears. Something like $1.4 trillion in commercial real estate loans comes due in the next 3 years.   

 

Given that a good portion of these properties are underwater, and the fact that banks are still reluctant to lend, the concern that many of these loans won’t get refinancing seems valid.   

 

Already, we have seen companies simply walk away from properties that are losing money, turning the keys over to the banks that hold the mortgages. Maguire Properties (NYSE:MPG) has done it. And we’ve seen BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) and Tishman Speyer Properties abandon Manhattan’s Stuyvesant Tower when the value fell from $5.4 billion to $2 billion.   

 

For shareholders, these moves make sense because it’s better than throwing good money after bad. For Maguire, it was a matter of life or death for the company.  

 

Still, it’s a concern because someone has to step up and buy the impaired real estate from the banks. Otherwise, bank balance sheets are saddled with even more toxic assets, capital bases fall, lending dries up and the whole financial crisis gets repeated again.  

 

Interestingly, it may be the Chinese who help the U.S. out of this commercial real estate problem. 

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