For the past year, the fate of commercial real estate in the U.S. has been a popular talking point for economic bears. Something like $1.4 trillion in commercial real estate loans comes due in the next 3 years.   

Given that a good portion of these properties are underwater, and the fact that banks are still reluctant to lend, the concern that many of these loans won’t get refinancing seems valid.   

Already, we have seen companies simply walk away from properties that are losing money, turning the keys over to the banks that hold the mortgages. Maguire Properties (NYSE:MPG) has done it. And we’ve seen BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) and Tishman Speyer Properties abandon Manhattan’s Stuyvesant Tower when the value fell from $5.4 billion to $2 billion.   

For shareholders, these moves make sense because it’s better than throwing good money after bad. For Maguire, it was a matter of life or death for the company.  

Still, it’s a concern because someone has to step up and buy the impaired real estate from the banks. Otherwise, bank balance sheets are saddled with even more toxic assets, capital bases fall, lending dries up and the whole financial crisis gets repeated again.  

Interestingly, it may be the Chinese who help the U.S. out of this commercial real estate problem.