Ian Wyatt

Offshore Oil Services Company Targets Profitability in 2011 (HLX, CRR, BP)

Today we'll look at Helix Energy Solutions Group (NYSE: HLX), a contracting company that provides services to offshore energy companies. Helix Energy Solutions Group isn't a dividend payer like Carbo Ceramics, but it's attractive for an entirely different reason - its services should help get America's deepwater drilling in the Gulf of Mexico back on track following the 2010 oil spill by BP (NYSE: BP).

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Wyatt Research Staff

Oil Prices to Remain Above $100

While investors are focused on events in Japan, oil prices have crept back above $100 a barrel as tension in the Middle East escalates.

The U.S. is now supporting a "no-fly zone" over Libya, and perhaps even strategic air strikes. And the government in Bahrain has apparently invited the Saudi Arabian military to help it suppress protests in Bahrain.

Iranian leaders are complaining to the U.N. about the presence of Saudi troops in Bahrain; this is mostly fueled by the fact that the protesters in Bahrain are Shiite Muslims, like the Iranians, while Bahrain’s royal family and Saudi backers are Sunni. This may seem to Westerners like splitting hairs, but to them this is significant. 

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Ian Wyatt

Oil Prices Soar

Oil companies that face potential supply disruptions won't be the best performers as oil prices move higher. Instead, smaller companies that can leverage higher prices will be the best bets.
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Kevin McElroy

Don't Buy BP Plc (NYSE: BP)

Buying shares of BP wasn’t the popular trade. It was the opposite of the comfortable move to make at the time. I know I felt icky and weird even talking about it. I was one of very few prognosticators making the same recommendation.

And right now, I wouldn’t call BP a buy.

In fact, I wouldn’t recommend buying shares of any of the “blue-chip” oil companies right now. Even though some of them are trading at relatively cheap valuations, they’ve all had an amazing run over the past four to six months.

Today, oil is selling at its 52 week highs.

But one of my favorite ways to invest in rising oil prices is still only slightly more expensive than it was four months ago.

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Ian Wyatt

Tech Stocks Are Leading

Positive results for second quarter earnings have pushed the S&P 500 to the support/resistance point at 1,115 yesterday. And it looks as though that level will fall easily today.

FedEx (NYSE:FDX) doesn't report until September 16, but the company was kind enough to raise its earnings guidance yesterday, and that helped encourage investors that the global economy is improving.

Shipping stocks are always a good measure of economic activity. When business is growing, more packages are sent and shippers do well. And so, along with recent positive results from UPS (NYSE:UPS), FedEx's preannouncement is great news.
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Kevin McElroy

Obama’s Oily Oval Office Speech

Last night, President Obama delivered his first speech in the Oval Office. I’m guessing he chose the Oval Office to give his speech about the BP (NYSE: BP) oil spill because he hoped to evoke a sense of authority and intimacy for such an important and prickly topic.

After nearly two months of oil spilling into the Gulf of Mexico, this speech felt a bit flat. I think Obama might now realize that his skill in delivering powerful, inspiring platitude-filled speeches about America and hope and change, etc. doesn’t really transfer to the somber task of discussing plans for oil spill cleanup and reparation.

Full disclosure: I didn’t vote for the guy and while he’s certainly an accomplished speaker and quite possibly a perfect politician, I think his ideas about energy policy are completely useless if not outright wrong.

Forget last night’s disappointing speech for a second - here’s a quote from Obama after he received the Democrat Party’s nomination for Presidential candidacy:

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Ian Wyatt

What? BP's not American?

That was an excellent rally yesterday! The S&P 500 broke through important resistance at 1085. For more insight, I will turn to my trusted sidekick, technical analyst for TradeMaster Daily Stock Alerts Jason Cimpl…   

 

After the weakness on Tuesday, I was beginning to doubt the bulls ability to take the market higher. The group came through yesterday and took back 1085, which needs to become support. Volume was low again, but internals were commendable as buyers out numbered the sellers by 5 to 1. Today the big resistance to watch will be 1103 and 1115. SPX 1103 stopped the market dead in its tracks last week. Stronger lateral resistance exists at 1115 which dates back to December 2009 and is also the 20 DMA and gap resistance.   

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Kevin McElroy

Buy BP Shares At 2009 Lows

Crude oil is arguably the most important commodity in the world. It’s easily the most traded commodity. Every other sector, business and commodity in the world depends on oil. Simply put – the market is huge.

So when you get the chance to buy oil companies at cheap valuations, you should pounce early, often and with unwavering decisiveness. Oil’s not going anywhere – it’s going everywhere.

That’s why it’s important to get your portfolio in front of the long, inevitable trend of higher oil prices. It’s the biggest and most important market. That’s why I sincerely hope you think about buying today’s cheapest oil company in the stock market.

But before I tell you about this company whose shares are currently selling close to its 2009 lows, I’d like to answer the question: Exactly how huge is oil?

These platitudes about oil’s importance and size frequently get passed around by members of the popular media like bottles of Gallo Rosé wine at a Grateful Dead concert – so indulge me to show you the exact numbers to help you wrap your head around the sheer magnitude of the situation.

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Ian Wyatt

Bakken Oil Profits

To call the explosion of the Deepwater Horizon oil rig and the subsequent well damage that’s allowed millions of gallons of oil spill into the Gulf of Mexico a tragedy is an understatement.   

 

Eleven men died when that rig exploded on April 20th. And now, critical fisheries along the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi are being destroyed. The commercial fishing industry in these states is threatened and a way of life for these fishermen may be coming to an end.   

 

An oil slick is reportedly nine miles off the coast of Pensacola  

 

BP itself is under siege, too. The stock is in a virtual freefall as repeated efforts to cap the leak have failed. It could be months before the leak is stopped. Costs to the company could hit $22 billion. And that’s if BP didn’t do anything wrong. 

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Ian Wyatt

China Plays Ball

On Tuesday, I discussed in Daily Profit how cooperation between the U.S. and China was critical to helping investors get past the fears of the Euro debt problem, and keep the world focused on growth.   

 

I don’t think it’s any coincidence that last night, Chinese officials came out and said they were long-term investors in China, just as Treasury Secretary Geithner finished a round of meetings in China.  

 

This is exactly the type of cooperation I was talking about. China’s massive currency reserve and trade surplus are meaningless if the global economy goes back in the tank. So it’s in China’s interest to support the euro.   

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Ian Wyatt

Value is What You Get

I really, really don’t want to talk about the euro today. And I think I’ve made myself quite clear about oil prices. (In fact, I just recommended another top-notch Bakken oil producer to Energy World Profits readers last Thursday that should be good for a quick 30% gain as well as outstanding long-term growth. You can learn more HERE.)   

 

Today, there’s something else on my mind.   

 

As usual, there’s a wide range of debate over whether stocks are overpriced or not. The Wall Street Journal says that the price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is currently 19. Based on forward earnings estimates, it’s 14. Clearly, a p/e of 19 is above the historical average of approximately 16. And the forward p/e of 14 is below the historic average. It’s likely that the truth lies somewhere in the middle. I have no problem stating that stocks appear more or less fairly valued at the moment.  

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Kevin McElroy

How far can oil prices fall?

My general prediction for a low coming after the next 10 days is in line with research from Energy Analyst Gregor Macdonald, who contributes to Energy World Profits

Gregor has been looking at seasonal tendencies going back 25 years, and it’s normal for crude oil to hit an initial high in April, and then bottom in June before hitting a new, higher high later in the summer. 

So my point is that if you’re currently a shareholder in oil stocks, don’t sell.  But you should look for opportunities to add to your positions.  I believe the time will come between now and the last week in June.

To take advantage of these lower prices, which may never be this low again, I’ve talked about buying BP (NYSE: BP).  Seasonally low oil prices are the last of this company’s worries, as the spill in the Gulf of Mexico seems to be snaking its way towards the Florida Keys.  I don’t know how much more hated this company can get. But regardless of what happens, I’m confident that BP will still be in the business of selling oil for many years after this disaster is just an unpleasant memory. 

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Ian Wyatt

The Volatility Genie

I was trolling Bloomberg last night and I came across the following quote:  

 

“The volatility genie is out of the bottle and it will take some time to put it back…”   

 

It doesn’t really matter who said it or what they were commenting on. I initially dismissed it as one of those clichéd comments that just takes up space and doesn’t really add anything meaningful to the discussion.   

 

I mean, “volatility genie”? Come on.   

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Kevin McElroy

Will You Prosper From Disaster?

The spill in the Gulf Coast near Louisiana is nothing short of a tragedy.  And for certain, it’s a man-made phenomenon.  There’s really no telling how bad this leak will be.  There’s concern that it will severely damage fisheries along the Louisiana coast.  It’s already disrupted shipping in the area.  And there’s no doubt, it’s not a good thing. 

Some analysts estimate this leak will cost BP (NYSE: BP) upwards of $3 billion in cleanup costs alone.  BP owns the drilling rig that exploded and caused the leak. That’s baked into the cake – BP stock fell nearly 10% last week and another few percent today.

President Obama was quick to blame BP.  They deserve the blame, but I think it’s a bit disingenuous of the President to angrily point his finger. On March 30th, less than a month before this leak, President Obama announced his desire to allow additional offshore oil and natural gas exploration and drilling in the Gulf of Mexico.

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