Here are three overlooked market trends from 2011 that could change how you consider managing your investments in the year ahead...

In the wake of one of the most volatile years ever for stocks, safety will be a key theme among investors in 2012.  

The idea may be a bit forward-looking, but it's not a difficult argument to make.

It has been a rough year for uranium stocks, but demand for the controversial metal is starting to resurface.

The market hardly budged yesterday and volume was below average, yet I still remain bullish.

In the spirit of Black Friday week, Warren Buffett appears to be shopping for a discount. He’s starting by looking at a country rattled by scandal and natural disasters.

The market was slammed yet another time yesterday. Although unlike Thursday and Friday, the indices recovered into the close.

Once again financials led the charge lower and the big banks like JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and Citigroup (NYSE:C) were down 3%. Energy and technology components were also hurt and stocks like Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and IBM (NYSE:IBM) were down 1% and Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), Apache (NYSE:APA), Continental Resources (NYSE:CLR), which we're short, and Halliburton (NYSE:HAL) were down 2%.

The market blasted higher yesterday. Volume soared as the indices climbed over 3% in a persistent rise. The accumulation was great as technology led the charge higher. Additionally, the indices were able to put in a big day without the help of a falling dollar which was a positive sign of market strength.

Yesterday I wrote about how the bulls needed a big day and also how I thought the bulls were going to get it. The SPX was near a sturdy support zone, and a bottoming pattern was in place. All the bulls needed to do was pump the market higher and then SPX would be on its way to 1197.

Bad news from Germany this morning. Europe's one economic bright spot reported lower than expected GDP growth for the second quarter.

This shouldn't be too big of a surprise, though, because we've known that Europe has been struggling with debt, and austerity measures are causing big slowdowns in the afflicted countries. Greece, for instance, saw its economy shrink 6.9% in the latest quarter.

On the upside, industrial production expanded more than expected. The 0.9% gain was the biggest jump this year and the first increase since March. This is related to the earthquake/tsunami that Japan suffered earlier in the year...

The world is once again talking about Japan. No, it is not another horrific catastrophe. In fact, it is the exact opposite.

***All of Japan celebrated the amazing World Cup victory on Sunday as Japan defeated the American women in what many soccer analysts call the ‘greatest upset in World Cup history'. The resilience of the Japanese women as they came from behind several times throughout the match is a telling depiction of Japanese society as a whole, including its economy.

Indeed, much like the Japanese women, the third largest economy in the world has proven to be extremely resilient since the events at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.

According to Bloomberg, the Nikkei 225, the most widely quoted average of Japanese stocks, advanced 2.9 percent over the past six weeks. The recent advance in Japanese equities is the largest among all 24 developed nations in the MSCI World Index. The Nikkei 225 is now within 4.7 percent of its pre-earthquake levels.

The market reversed early gains yesterday morning to close mostly lower. Volume was fairly light except in the Nasdaq, which had heavier volume as a result of a technology sector downgrade. SPX made

We’re well past the point of being equal partners in the usage of the world’s energy resources. If the chart on the left is any indication, we’re actually well on our way to becoming rather inconsequential as a global energy consumer.

And from the chart on the left, it’s pretty clear that any growth in developing world energy consumption means a commensurate decrease in energy consumption on a percentage basis – but what might not be so clear from the chart on the right: we’re at a point when there’s very little room for emerging world energy consumption to increase without necessarily decreasing energy consumption in the developed world.

To butcher a quote from the 2009 movie “There Will Be Blood” – the emerging markets are starting to drink our milkshakes.

The coal milkshake went first. China surpassed the United States as the world’s largest coal consumer in 2009. Today, China uses more energy than the United States, by a 5-10% margin depending on who you ask.

What’s the next milkshake? It might be oil. China’s oil consumption doubled in the last 6-7 years:

Japan's nuclear disaster probably set back the world's push toward nuclear-powered electric generation by years. Instead of huge nuclear energy expansion, which had been planned, we're likely going to see more nations stick with tried-and-true coal-fired electric plants, along with further expansion into natural gas.

It’s well known that Japan is among the largest holders of US Treasuries. According to the US Treasury website, the Japanese only come second to China in terms of Treasury ownership, with $885 billion in Treasury holdings as of January 2011.

And almost on cue, my favorite contra-indicator proclaimed to the world just days after the earthquake that the Japanese will be forced to sell Treasury holdings.

You might be familiar with my contra-indicator. I’ve called it many things, but it comes down to this: when Tim Geithner, the Treasury Secretary goes on the record to say one thing, you can be almost guaranteed that the opposite will happen.

And on March 15^th, Geithner gave me my answer when he said he didn’t believe the Japanese would sell Treasuries.

I don’t know for sure if Japan is selling Treasuries at this point. But somebody is, and that’s the opposite of what you’d expect, and what historically happens, after a significant crisis.

Usually, capital flies to Treasuries in these circumstances. But today, people are selling dollars and flooding into gold and alternative currencies like the yen.

The last few days of the first quarter are here. And what a quarter it's been! We saw the end of two governments in the Middle East (Egypt and Tunisia). Two more are teetering on the brink (Syria and Libya). We saw oil prices spike above $100 a barrel. We saw the Prime Minister of Portugal leave office. There was massive flooding in Australia and a devastating earthquake/tsunami in Japan.

 

And amazingly, stocks look poised for an end of quarter run that should challenge 1,335 resistance on the S&P 500. Who knows, we may even see new highs above 1,344 this week.

Stocks look poised to continue the rebound from 1,250 on the S&P 500. We've got the ADP private payrolls on Wednesday, Non-farm payrolls on Friday and then Q1 earnings season kicks off on April 11.

 

There have been no significant earnings warnings ahead of Q1 earnings. And in fact, the last Q4 earnings reports that trickled in were very good. Red Hat (NYSE:RHT), Micron tech (NYSE:MU), ConAgra (NYSE:CAG) and Oracle (Nasdaq:ORCL) all posted good numbers last week. And FedEX (NYSE:FDX) was bullish the week before.

The market turned lower yesterday, then for absolutely no reason, other than unabashed optimism from the bulls, the market jacked higher and erased all losses. Yesterday's swift turnaround is a

The market continued lower yesterday as resistance levels across the board held. Volume was once again lower as market participates try to decide which direction the indices want to push. Curiously

The market blasted higher out of the gate yesterday. Although it moved (painfully) sideways with almost no activity for the rest of the session. The rally was mainly bolstered by energy and industrial

The  market moved lower last week, and volume increased dramatically. Of course, the fears of a nuclear meltdown in Japan and the constant social tension in North Africa were mostly to blame.

The market soared higher. The bulls built on Wednesday's midday surge, and blasted higher on Thursday. Sadly, volume dried up and the buying was not broad based. Additionally, and this is probably the

By day 5 of the earthquake/tsunami/meltdown disaster, significant parts of Japan are experiencing shortages of food, fuel and water.

This isn’t Chile, China or even Haiti. We’re talking about one of the world’s most advanced economies with arguably the best distribution networks in existence. Japan also exhibits among the most law-abiding and orderly cultures in the world.

This disaster underscores the dire circumstances every Westerner could find themselves in with even a minor sustained disruption of food, gas or water supply.

Simply put, almost no one living in the United States or Europe is at all prepared for more than a few days of slowed or halted supply of staples. That’s the nature of the modern consumer based distribution system we have in place. And while that system isn’t necessarily broken, it’s hard to say the same thing about the fiat currency system that it runs in tandem with.

But we don’t have to turn the pages of history too far back to see that Westerners in general and Americans in particular are not so well behaved when normalcy becomes disrupted.

In the face of such a bearish onslaught why did we go long (and not short) Wednesday afternoon.

So when I say that you should make a list of stocks to buy, I’m not saying you should jump into the market and buy them just because they’re down a few points. I’m saying you should name your price, have the capital ready, and jump on the opportunity IF it comes.

And if this correction is even half as big as I expect it to be, just about every boat will get sunk as the tide recedes.

Even big, blue chip stocks that every investor should own will get hammered.

Last year, Exxon-Mobil (NYSE: XOM) shares sold for less than $60 – even cheaper than they were during the depths of the 2008-2009 bear market – briefly selling for less than 10 times earnings.

That’s the kind of company that should be on your shopping list at that kind of price.

The market in the U.S. declined yesterday, but the selling could have been worse. The indices declined a little over 1% at a 4 to 1 decline to advance pace. Volume was also high and it will remain

The Wall Street Journal reported today that troubles in Japan aren't staying on the island nation. Instead, they're spreading throughout the world.

From the Journal's article, "Global markets plunged as deepening worries over the specter of a nuclear power crisis in Japan in the wake of last week's earthquake and its economic implications sent investors scurrying again for safety."

This piece begs the question: what's safe these days? Is the U.S. Dollar safe? Are U.S. Treasuries safe?

Today I’m enlisting the help of my colleague and friend Tom Cullis to help fill in some of the gaps on the uranium story.

Tom adds a scientific outlook on the markets, as he’s worked as a research scientist on DNA extraction projects among other highly specialized and technical endeavors.

He recently wrote to me to explain some of the key points of the uranium supply story, and I think you’ll find his insight extremely helpful. His piece is a little longer than what I usually write in this daily letter, but if you read the information below, you’ll be better informed than 99% of other investors on this topic, and that’s information you can use to your advantage during these uncertain times in the market.

“As of January 1^st 2010 there were 437 active nuclear power plants in the world producing over 370GW, there are also currently 56 new plants under construction capable of producing an additional 512GW.

That means a capacity increase of 14% is well on the way in the pipeline for nuclear power, with plans for 29 more plants under review in the US alone and over 100 worldwide.

Nuclear capability is projected to grow at a faster rate than world energy consumption over the next 10, 20 or 50 years.

The market is going to get weirder before its back to normal. Yesterday the SPX closed below 1301 support, which indicated it wanted to move lower today. The Nasdaq fought its way back to 2700

The global marketplace is littered with oily rags. All that’s needed is a spark.

And while some people may look back at the Japanese earthquake as “the cause” that initiated a sell-off of stocks, bonds and commodities, it’s simply a catalyst.

Just about every asset class out there has ramped higher, and while the move higher fits neatly into my thesis of inflated commodity prices, no bull market goes straight up forever.

So this sell-off (if it does indeed begin now) should offer us a chance to average into commodity assets at more attractive prices.

I’ve made this same statement before, if you recall. I predicted the possibility that Ben Bernanke’s announcement of Quantitative Easing 2 could disappoint.

I’m also of the opinion that a lack of continued liquidity after QE2 expires in June could cause a similar across the board correction.

But this type of natural disaster, where hundreds of thousands, if not millions of Japanese institutions, individuals, government bodies and investors will have to raise cash, and quick, could be the major catalyst that surprises the market to the downside.

I'm starting to feel like I don’t have enough zeroes on my calculator...

Let me see if I have all this straight: we have a record high Federal deficit, 9% unemployment, a housing market that still hasn't bottomed, a Federal Reserve that's hell-bent on spending our way out of a debt crisis, a banking system that won't lend but wants to pay dividends, a looming energy crisis, instability in the Middle East, soaring commodity prices, Europe has a never-ending debt crisis, China can't stop its own inflation, Japan is on the brink of nuclear meltdown, and Apple's iPhone reportedly couldn't handle the daylight savings time change.

In fact, I read that one user called her iPhone "stupid."

Ye gods.

The market turned lower last week and volume was heightened on all major exchanges. The bears still dominate the short term trend, something we have been attuned to since February 24, but the bulls

The Government is failing itself and its citizens. Every year you and I grow poorer. Every year we pay more for basic necessities. Every year we see our earning power diminish.

And yet, our Government remains steadfastly loyal to the very policies that cause this increasing poverty.

It’s following the EXACT same path as dozens of other failed, defunct states. In fact, the list of failed states would be a short one if it didn’t include those governments who devalued their currencies.

Devaluing a currency might be the best way to destroy a state. War rarely wipes out the state. Disease, famine, rebellion - these misfortunes don’t hold a candle to currency devaluation.

As we discussed yesterday, recent weakness was a dip to be bought. But we should also understand that anticipating more upside is really about anticipating the news flow, and investor reaction to that news.

Of course, I didn't know that Portugal would get a great response to a bond auction, thereby lessening worries that debt problems were spreading. I also didn't know that Wells Fargo would upgrade the financial sector on renewed dividends and "superior" earnings growth.

Today there are two huge trends that are about to benefit one small sector more than any other.

First I’ll tell you the trends so you can connect the dots - and I’ll give you one way to invest.

The first trend is somewhat well-known. It goes like this: when interest rates in the United States begin to rise, the Japanese stock market tends to outperform.

You can see this trend in action in the somewhat complicated table below:

It’s disturbing to think that this country has come so far, to the point that our Secretary of State recognizes that our diplomatic efforts are SEVERELY hampered by our sovereign debt levels. If that’s not a signal to ditch the dollar for commodities, then I don’t know what would be.

However, this China problem is something that I think needs to be addressed publicly by our leaders - in an honest and straightforward fashion. I don’t want to hear anymore weak-sister threats, limp-wristed non-statements and dim-witted denials from Timmy Geithner or Ben Bernanke.

Reviewing a quick run-down of the retail industry revealed a few great buys. First

It's likely just a coincidence… but it appears that some folks in Japan might have had some inside knowledge about the central bank's decision last night to lower rates.

If you're at all familiar with my investment thesis - you know that I believe artificially low interest rates and other inflationary measures from central banks will have a bullish effect on commodities of all stripes, especially and including precious metals.

It's a simple thesis: precious metals famously offer no yield, but when central banks lower the cost of borrowing money to artificial levels, and inflate the currency, precious metals hold their ground. It's only when central bank debt securities offer better than the going rate of inflation (or the perceived threat of inflation) that gold and silver lose their luster with the investing public at large.

So far this year, the S&P 500 has dropped 3% or more in one session 3 different times. The two previous times, it clawed back some of the losses over the following week. We’ll have to wait and see of there is any upside after yesterday’s big drop.   

 

The S&P 500 is now testing the lows from the “flash crash” on May 6. This is interesting because it was assumed that trading that day was something of a fluke as computer trading programs went haywire. But now that stocks are back to those levels, we must consider that the drop may not have been a fluke.  

 

The question now is: can stocks find some strength? Or perhaps a better way to ask the question is: are the sellers done?