Earnings season has been a success so far, with roughly 70% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported so far beating expectations.

For the second time in a week, we had a "margin call" day. That's what I've started to call those days where the market sells off steadily all day, because it's as if the market itself received a margin call, and has to sell stock relentlessly, regardless of fundamentals.

Now, since I mentioned fundamentals, that's the place to begin our discussion of what's happened to the stock market lately - and what we should be doing about it.

As I wrote yesterday, analysts and strategists alike are on record saying they do not want to lower earnings forecasts for stocks. They typically cite the fact that companies have steadily grown earnings, even when economic data weakens, like last summer, when economic data was so weak, the Fed began the bond buying program known as QE2.

So far this year, the S&P 500 has dropped 3% or more in one session 3 different times. The two previous times, it clawed back some of the losses over the following week. We’ll have to wait and see of there is any upside after yesterday’s big drop.   

 

The S&P 500 is now testing the lows from the “flash crash” on May 6. This is interesting because it was assumed that trading that day was something of a fluke as computer trading programs went haywire. But now that stocks are back to those levels, we must consider that the drop may not have been a fluke.  

 

The question now is: can stocks find some strength? Or perhaps a better way to ask the question is: are the sellers done?   

We’ve been tackling some pretty heavy issues in Daily Profit this week. And while I’m not one of the doom and gloomers who believe that stimulus policies and sovereign debt issues are about to bring about a stock market crash and economic depression, I’m adamant that we keep a firm grip on the all of the catalysts that are driving the stock market and the global economy.   

 

Stimulus policies in the U.S. were designed to help prop up asset values long enough for demand to return. If the plan succeeds, then employment will improve, lending will pick up as the housing market works off inventory, and the toxic assets that exist on the balance sheets (both banks’ and the Fed’s) can regain some value.   

 

If the plan fails, then we see another fire-sale of assets in what amounts to a huge margin call.