It’s my birthday today, so I apologize if this article is somewhat harried, short, or discombobulated.

I’m one year older, there’s one more grain of sand gone from the hourglass, but I have no reason to complain. The weather is nice, I’m healthy and there are opportunities to grow richer.

If I could have just one birthday wish granted, it would be for every one my readers to protect their bottom dollar by buying one investment today, this very moment. I don’t know what will happen to stocks, the dollar, the euro, but I do believe that there are steps we can all take to protect ourselves from calamity in all three. More on this investment in a minute.

But for right this very second, it’s hard to be bullish on the broad market – as I’ve pointed out many times in this letter; we’re in the middle, and perhaps nearing the end of a long-term secular bear market.

Don’t believe me? Take a look at this 12 year chart of the S&P 500:

Today, I start by offering my condolences. It’s tax day, never a pleasant time of the year.  

Yesterday, I noted that the recent rally lacked enthusiasm. Low volume and small daily gains were the hallmarks. Did all that change yesterday after Intel (Nasdaq:INTC) posted blowout numbers?  

Maybe. Volume posted its best totals since February. And the S&P 500 made its biggest gain since March 5. 

Stocks continue their upward climb. As TradeMaster's Jason Cimpl  told us earlier in the week, the S&P 500 has kept its date with 1,150. And it looks poised to move higher.   

The retail sales data from February is positive. Despite two crippling blizzards on the East Coast, sales still rose 0.3%. And if you strip out autos, sales were up 0.8%.   

Normally, it makes no sense to ignore auto sales because they are obviously an important gauge of consumer spending, but in light of the recalls from Toyota (NYSE:TM), it’s reasonable to assume that some auto sales were simply postponed due to the uncertainty.    

Sales were especially strong for electronics and at restaurants and bars. Sounds like consumers are celebrating their new iPhone purchase over a beer. That’s probably led to a surge in drunk-texting.   

Retail sales from January have now been revised lower two times, from an initial reading of +0.5% to the current +0.1%. Funny thing about this rally – economic data is consistently revised lower, and no one cares. The only exception I can think of is 4Q 2009 GDP, which was actually revised slightly higher.  

Economic data has been improving. But it says more about the bullishness of investors that they are consistently overlooking negative data. That gives me more confidence that we will be seeing new highs for the major indices soon.   

Now, let’s wrap up our week with some Reader Mail… 

I got this letter in my inbox yesterday:   

Good morning Ian,   

I followed your instruction and bought MPG at 1.50 per share, today, it goes crazy. Thanks a lot.    

I really like to read your articles.   

Sue   

I first discovered Maguire back in September, 2009. As part of my daily routine, I check in on the stocks that are moving the most every day. You can find this information on Yahoo! Finance by clicking on this link:  http://finance.yahoo.com/gainers?e=us.  

This list simply shows the stocks that are putting in the biggest moves of the day. It’s almost always dominated by small cap stocks. You’ll also usually see a few regional banks that are up 15% on 3,000 shares traded. I’m always curious why these big moves happen to small banks on ridiculously light volume, but I digress… 

In early February, stocks looked as though they were breaking down. We had just gotten through the Dubai debt problem. China was raising reserve requirements for banks to slow the rate of lending. And then the news about Greece’s debt problems broke.  The S&P 500 had dropped from January highs at 1,150 to as low as 1,044. That’s a 9% move, and if you recall it was enough to get investors a little nervous. In fact, some were even saying that the global economic rebound was done before it was even a year old.

It was about that time that I started including TradeMaster Daily Stock Alerts' Jason Cimpl in our daily conversation here at Daily Profit.

What a great Super Bowl game! I have to admit, I was pulling for the Saints, but mainly because of what the Saints mean for that city. I'm sure we all remember the horrible aftermath of hurricane Katrina. The very existence of New Orleans was in question. The Saints considered moving, and I recall suggestions that only the French Quarter be saved and made into a corporate convention amusement park.

Of course, that would have been an absurd commercialization of a proud and rich heritage. That New Orleans has come back to resemble the city it was before Katrina is nothing short of miraculous, and now the people of New Orleans have a Super Bowl trophy to crown their achievement. Congratulations, New Orleans and the Saints.

It's tempting to extend the metaphor of New Orleans to the United States as we rebuild after the financial crisis. Of course, I have no doubt that we will recover. But there will likely be no single event that crowns the recovery like the Lombardi Trophy does for New Orleans.

And besides, we're investors. It is our desire to be properly positioned for a growth in stock valuations, all the while avoiding the pitfalls of overvalued stocks and worsening economic conditions.

Clearly, investors have been pondering the potential of weaker economy as some stimulus policies end, Europe faces debt problems and China moves to slow its economy. Bloomberg reports that investors pulled $9 billion out of global equity funds during the last week of January. And investors have bet heavily on an extended sell-off as evidenced by huge volumes of put option activity.

At the same time, 73% of S&P 500 companies have beaten 4th quarter earnings expectations. That's the best performance since 1993. Strong earnings, coupled with the recent 7.3% decline, have left the P/E for the S&P 500 at 18, down from 24. The forward P/E, based on future earnings expectations, is below 13.