Ian Wyatt

Lennar's Windfall

So far this year 15 banks have been closed by the FDIC. Last year, it was 134, if I'm counting the closing figures right as posted on the FDIC website. Some of you may remember the last time there were mass amounts of bank closings during the S&L crisis of the late '80s and early '90s. At the time, a special agency, the Resolution Trust Corporation (RTC) was set up to dispose of the assets of these banks.

The RTC was controversial because many times it sold assets at prices far below market value. Ultimately though, the RTC succeeded in getting assets seized from insolvent banks into stronger hands. And because some of these "stronger hands" had low cost structures due to low up front costs, a new phase of growth was born.

A similar thing is happening now. Lennar Corporation (NYSE: LEN), a homebuilder, recently picked up $3 billion worth of unfinished homes from the FDIC for about 40 cents on the dollar. Lennar only had to put up $243 million. The FDIC kicked in $365 million and provided 0% interest financing.

Because Lennar's upfront costs are so low, it will be able to hire the workers needed to finish the homes and offer those homes for sale at a price that makes sense for buyers. This is how growth returns after a bubble.

But this time there's a twist. The $365 million put up by the FDIC? It's an equity stake. Yes, rather than simply disposing of the assets to the highest bidder the FDIC, and by extension the government, now has a stake in those unfinished homes.

The FDIC could turn a profit here. But by offering financing and providing an interest-free loan, the FDIC is also supporting home valuations by not letting these unfinished homes sell at absolute rock bottom prices.

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Ian Wyatt

Pawns in a Rich Man's Game

Bespoke Investment Group is reporting that 10% of U.S. corporations are raising earnings expectations, compared to 4.1% that are lowering them. That's the largest gap on record, and suggests that analysts still have earnings projections that are too low.

It's hard to blame the analysts for being cautious. While the economy has improved, uncertainty about unemployment is an issue. It's easy to imagine that consumer demand could drop. Still, let's not ignore what corporations are saying. After all, they are the ones in direct communication with their customers. I can't help but be a little optimistic that there is more upside for the stock market.

Don't ignore the consolidation news from the commercial real estate sector this morning. Mall owner Simon Properties (NYSE: SPG) is offering $10 billion for its rival, General Growth Properties (NYSE: GGP).

Several investors and economists believe commercial real estate will be the next shoe to drop. And within that sector, shopping malls are probably the most beaten down group. That Simon Properties is considering a buyout means that it sees opportunity. And it is moves like these that often mark a bottom for an industry or sector.

I've recommended a commercial real estate stock that may have some terrific upside. Maguire Properties (NYSE: MPG) is back to its support level at $1.50. If you didn't catch it there last time, you might want to give it a look.

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