Kevin McElroy

Proof for Bernanke

Right now, we have crystal clear proof on the topic of the wages of reserve currency devaluation. We know, because we’re seeing those wages everyday.

Reserve currency devaluation results in higher commodity prices.

I don’t even think that Ben Bernanke himself would dispute the above statement privately.

Over the course of Bernanke’s tenure, we’ve heard some fancy banker speak. We’ve heard about increasing liquidity and backstopping the financial system and easing quantitatively.

But today, everything that you would expect to happen when a currency is devalued is happening – and more.

Before I get to the “and more” portion, we don’t have to look very far or hard at all to find the wages of currency devaluation.

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Kevin McElroy

What’s Wrong with this Sugar Investment? (SGG, IPSU)

Last May, I advised you to consider buying an American sugar producer. Here’s what I said, “I’m looking for a 12 cent per pound floor. If sugar hits that price, or even dips lower, I’ll be on the lookout for an entry point into a sugar company.
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Kevin McElroy

Why you should be concerned about oil prices

For some industries - like shipping - oil prices are one of the biggest cost inputs. Other industries, like...oh say, online publishing, are somewhat less dependent on oil.

But every sector of the economy does have an oil cost input.

That's why I'm extremely worried about oil prices, and where we all know they're going.

For a small taste of what's in store, Charles Maxwell, senior energy analyst for Weeden & Co. - a man with 50 years experience in the field - recently predicted that we'll see $150/barrel oil within the next five years, and $300 oil by 2020.

I'm a bit less optimistic - because I think we could easily break the $150 barrier in the next 18 months. It was only 24 months ago that we saw similar prices - so it's not out of the question.

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Kevin McElroy

Farmland that pays a dividend

Before I reveal the name of this stock, I want to point out that buying a company with farmland in the mix is a great diversification play - and doubly so when it pays a dividend.

That's because when you buy this type of company, you're getting exposure to the continued profitability of its underlying farm business, but you're also buying actual farmland that the company owns - and if you've been reading this letter, you probably know that I'm extremely bullish on farmland prices.

I also happen to be bullish on the commodities that grow on farms; corn, wheat, sugar, cattle, pigs, chickens, etc.

The dividend is just a small bonus, but I know there are readers out there interested in income, so it's worth a mention - even though it's only a 2% annual yield.

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Kevin McElroy

Sweet Vengeance Against the Gas Pump

In yesterday's edition, I talked about an oil services company that benefits from higher oil prices.

But higher oil prices don't just benefit oil companies. In fact, higher oil prices can sometimes hurt oil companies - because higher oil prices frequently reflect higher production costs - so while a company might get more dollars per barrel, each barrel costs it more to get out of the ground. And even though the effect is usually small, higher prices typically result in a somewhat diminished demand.

According to Enerdata, an independent energy consulting company, gasoline consumption dropped 4.5% in North America during the record high oil prices of 2008. That's certainly a significant drop, but as you're probably painfully aware, oil prices more than doubled from the previous year:

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Kevin McElroy

Jim Rogers says this commodity is cheap TODAY

For months, former George Soros partner and famed resource investor Jim Rogers has been trumpeting natural gas and silver investments. I've been doing the same in the Resource Prospector newsletter since launching back in March. If you've been sitting on the sidelines, there is still time to take action before these investments run away from you.

Jim Rogerswrote the book on resource investing: Hot Commodities. I urge anyone interested in the topic to go out and get yourself a copy. Right now there are 29 new and 17 used copies of this book on Amazon.

When Jim Rogers said to buy natural gas and silver three months ago, I was already urging you to do the same. Natural gas prices have since risen by more than 25% - and some of the stocks in that sector have done far better.

I've also been pounding the silver drum. Silver is now up almost 10%, but I still think there's much more upside. You can read more about silver's potential in this past issue of the Resource Prospector by clicking here.

Rogers is still bullish on silver, but he recently mentioned another cheap commodity. It's something that Americans use everyday in great quantities - over 160 pounds per person every year.

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Kevin McElroy

Edible Gold

I hope you had a pleasant weekend and were able to get outside and enjoy the weather if it was amenable in your locale. We experienced some unseasonably warm weather here in Vermont, and I tried to stay outside as long as possible. I even fired up my new Weber charcoal grill, a birthday present from my wife. I grilled some sirloin steak, some mushrooms on a kebab and even some corn.

I’ve heard conflicting views on whether to grill the corn in its husk, or to grill it “naked.” This time I opted for naked, grilling it on the cob over indirect heat for about 10 minutes, and the corn had some nice caramelized flavors. I seasoned it ahead of time with salt, pepper and a little olive oil. If you have a bbq corn recipe (or any bbq recipe for that matter) please send it my way at editorial@resourceprospector.com.

Today’s article isn’t all grill recipes, though. I’ve wanted to write about corn, the commodity, for quite some time. It’s just tough to pull myself away from alluring topics like gold and energy. And I should apologize, because agriculture isn’t something that’s very exciting to read about – not like precious metals or oil. But commodities like corn, soybeans, wheat, pork bellies, cattle, sugar and coffee all fall into the realm of my purview.

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Kevin McElroy

This Commodity is Falling to 2006 Price Levels

I hope this 6th of May is finding you in good spirits, and that you’re not experiencing the downside of tequila over-enjoyment. Nothing against Mexican independence, but a foreign national holiday, partly concocted for American consumption by shrewd liquor companies, is not a good enough excuse for me to tie one on in the middle of the week.

And this time of year in Vermont, it’s just too nice out to want to risk ruining the next day with a tequila and sugar borne hangover. (By the way, if you know of a good hangover cure, please send it to me at editorial@resourceprospector.com)

Too much of a good thing is almost always no fun. Likewise, a bumper crop of sugar from Brazil and India is causing some severe consequences for prices.

The average American uses 156 pounds of sugar every year. At current price levels of about 15 cents a pound, that comes to only $23 and change.

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Will Atkinson

CEO: Imperial Sugar will take advantage of reduced sugar prices

Imperial Sugar Co. (Nasdaq: IPSU) CEO Bob Peiser said trends that continue to affect the company include soft industry pricing and a Mexican sugar crop that is expected to be large. Peiser made the comments during a midday conference call.

“The Mexican sugar industry is expected to harvest a large crop. This creates more competition for our refined products but helps us to the extent that Mexican imports are in the form of their standard sugar and can be used as a raw material in our refineries,” Peiser said. “We have already seen raw sugar pricing reduced because of the greater expectations of Mexican imports that can be used by refiners of the raw material.”

In late November, Imperial Sugar announced that it created a joint venture with Mexico-based Ingenios Santos, S.A. de C.V. to market sugar in Mexico. Peiser said the combined Mexico and U.S. market is 50% larger than the U.S. market alone.

Peiser said the conference call will be his last as he steps down as CEO in January. John Sheptor, the current Chief Operating Officer, will be appointed as Imperial’s new president and CEO at that time.

“I plan to reduce my involvement with the company effective Jan. 29, which is the date of our annual meeting and at that time assume the position of vice chairman for the next year,” Peiser said. “John is very qualified to provide extraordinary leadership to our associates and to work toward enhancing stockholder value. His skill sets are very complimentary to mine and are the right ones for Imperial at this time.”

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Paul Rolfes

Mannatech: Good for what ails your portfolio?

As many Americans try to take better care of their bodies by adopting a healthy lifestyle and good eating habits, they’ll often look outside the realm of physician-prescribed mainstream medications for alternative, over-the-counter solutions.

Hence, the rise in the demand for nutritional supplements of many varieties – vitamins, minerals, herbs, imported or domestic, natural or man-made. Some studies have estimated the market value at close to $5 billion in 2006, with expectations for it to grow by another billion dollars or so by 2011.

Enter Mannatech Inc. (Nasdaq: MTEX), a Coppell, Texas-based company founded by Sam Caster in 1993, shortly after a change in federal regulations made it more advantageous for companies to market a greater variety of dietary supplements. It became publicly traded in 1999, three years after introducing its headliner product, Ambrotose which the company says “supports the immune system.”

Through an army of independent local distributors in a multi-level-marketing program, and direct sales through its website, Mannatech offers a line of products usually in packages selling for from about $20 to well past $300. Most are nutritionals; there are a handful of skin-care items, and a few deal with weight loss. The company founder and his wife, Linda, readily express their Christian beliefs, and she has written that Mannatech is a “Joseph” company, referring to the Biblical character who was on a divine mission.

Supporters love Mannatech and tout the effectiveness of the company’s products in helping to stave off a variety of ills; detractors say they’re scamming customers with worthless products and false scientific support of the nutritionals’ benefits. Most of its supplements are glyconutrients, and Mannatech is best known for selling Ambrotose, which it calls “a glyconutritional dietary supplement ingredient consisting of a blend of monosaccharides, or sugar molecules.” The human body needs simple sugars, and while the majority of medical experts say the body will produce the sugars that it needs from a normal diet, Mannatech suggests that its products can enhance wellness by supplying those sugars.

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