Fed to Fixed-Income Investors: 'Look Elsewhere for Yield'
With a 10-year note that is yielding less than two percent, what is a fixed-income investor to do?
After Fed Decision, It’s Time to Turn to Income Stocks
Income stocks have never looked better than after yesterday’s Fed bombshell.
Four Dividend Stocks with Better Credit Ratings than the U.S. Treasury
With the U.S. Treasury having its credit rating slashed, Treasury Bonds aren't the low-risk investment they once were. Here are four dividend stocks that are safer, and more profitable, investments.
How to Profit From Italy’s Fall
Italy, Greece, Portugal and Spain are all in big trouble... Fortunately for you there's a great way to profit from their unfortunate mess.
Mixed Economic Data
But while investors seem to be feeling at least slightly better about a budget deal getting done before Tuesday, another negative catalyst has reared its head -- weak economic data.
Treasury Bonds: The Worst Commodity (PST, TBT, GM)
It's one of the most important trends in the market, and like all big trends, it should be obvious and clear to anyone paying attention: the US Treasury market is in one of the biggest bubbles in the history of the world.
Waiting for Treasury bonds to crash has been like waiting for the world's largest ship to come into port. Even when you can see it getting close, it could still be very far away.
So even though five year Treasury yields just experienced their biggest gains in over 20 years, it could still be some time before our ship truly comes in.
Did China Sell All Its Treasuries? (bac)
Bank stocks are getting beaten down again this morning. Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), for instance, is off another 3%, and is trading below $11 a share and well below tangible book value of $11.40.
Valuations might look attractive. As a group, the big banks trade with a forward P/E around 10, while the S&P 500 as a whole sits at 13. But investors should always ask “what’s the upside?” And for the banks, that’s a darn good question.
Wall Street's Herd Mentality
As expected, today's Nonfarm Payroll number was just as bad as the ADP Payroll indicated it might be. Expectations were that 165,000 jobs were added in May. The reality is that we got only 54,000 jobs.
Soft patch, indeed.
The economy has been adding an average of 220,000 jobs for three months running. 54,000 is a big miss, big enough to push the unemployment rate up to 9.1%.
Dollar and Treasuries Lower… (gs,msft,csco)
The U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds are weaker today after the Group of 8 said the global economy was growing and the perception of Greek debt problems improved.
As we know, a weaker dollar sets the stage for higher stock and commodity prices. Oil is perhaps the best indicator of economic growth expectations. And its inverse correlation to the U.S. dollar is also airtight. So much so, that if you see oil rally, bullish economic commentary is usually not far behind.
Is the Economy Slowing Down? (cat, ibm)
Nearly a month ago, after the last Fed meeting, we started to discuss the likelihood that the U.S. economic recovery was slowing down. After all, the Fed had just lowered its GDP forecast for 2011 and acknowledged that inflation was picking up as a result of QE2.
The S&P 500 was above 1,360 at the time.
It's All About the Dollar (uup, tlt, uso, wtic)
More and more, strategists, commentators and investors are coming to the same conclusion: it's all about the U.S. dollar. When the dollar rallies, stocks and commodities sell off. When the dollar falls, then our favorite assets can rally.
It almost doesn't matter what the time-frame is. Evidence is mounting that even hourly moves for stock prices get their direction from the dollar's latest move.
Is the Recovery Stalling?
As I discussed on Friday, we’ve gotten some economic data that is less than robust. Q1 GDP growth was just 1.8%. And the Fed has lowered its full year growth forecasts.
Lost in the Shuffle (intc, rtn, msft, tlt, aapl)
It was somewhat lost in the shuffle in Wednesday. Investors were so stunned at Fed Chief Ben Bernanke's admission that commodity inflation might accelerate over the next few months before the Fed is forced to act on interest rates, they missed the part where the Fed lowered its 2011 GDP growth estimates from a range between 3.4% -- 3.9% to 3.1%.
For anyone pinning his or her hopes on 3.9%, that's got to be disappointing.
But after yesterday's first read of Q1 2011 GDP growth -- a measly 1.8% -- investors are likely to take another look at the total message delivered by the Fed.
The Fed's Conflicted Message
All eyes were on the Fed yesterday as Ben Bernanke gave the first ever press conference by a Fed Chief following an FOMC meeting. And I have to say that Bernanke was remarkably candid as he was peppered with questions about inflation, quantitative easing and interest rates.
Bernanke did a verbal tango that could put him on Dancing with the Stars. Yes, he pumped the system with boatloads of cash in a Treasury-buying spree known as QE2. But he also admitted yesterday that such stimulus does carry inflation risks, and those risks may not offset the potential gains in employment.
Oil Prices and Spending
MasterCard Spending Pulse, a data-tracking service, reports that, for the week of April 1, Americans bought 2.4 million gallons less than the year before. Another service, Oil Price Information Service, says that gas stations are reporting sales falling by around 3%.
The best case scenario for falling oil prices is that they fall because supply is ample. The worst case is that oil prices fall because consumers are spending less. That inevitably brings up the fear that economic growth will slow on lower consumer spending. And when growth is already tepid, that’s clearly not good.
Bill Gross Shorts Treasury Bonds
That’s right – he’s now short around $7 billion worth of Treasury bonds. That sounds like a lot, but it represents just 3% of PIMCO’s $236 billion Total Return Fund.
Throw the Crooks in Jail! (brk, aig, blk, gs, lz)
Lubrizol stock jumped nearly 30% on the news that Berkshire would acquire the company. Sokol made nearly $3 million on the deal. And he is insisting that he did nothing wrong.
Bank of America: Denied (bac)
I can't say I'm surprised that Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) was not allowed to raise its dividend payment. And while BofA didn't specify the reasons its plan was rejected, I think we know pretty much why.
For one, Bank of America is still struggling with mortgage issues. And it's setting aside cash to cover potential "put-backs" of mortgage backed securities it sold. Plus, Bank of America is barely profitable. Its main source of earnings right now is coming from loan loss reserves that are returned to its balance sheet and counted as earnings.
Japan Stock Market Crash, Keep an Eye on Microchip Companies (TXN, ONNN, XLNX, MXIM, ALTR, ADI, LLTC
The Bank of Japan pumped $183 billion in yen yesterday to try and contain the damage to the Japanese economy and stock market. It didn't work.
The Nikkei dropped over 1,000 points in Tuesday trading, better than 10%. That's after a 5% drop Monday.
That qualifies as a crash. And it's no "flash crash", either.
S&P 500 to 1,280?
Days like yesterday are never fun. The selling hit everything; oil stocks, tech, stocks, commodities, retail, gold, silver, you name it, it was down. Well, except for Treasuries and the U.S. dollar.
Treasuries are a safe-haven, but in a different way than precious metals. Precious metals protect wealth over the long-term. Treasuries can generate a return even for a trade.
Oil and Debt and Never the Twain Shall Meet
Energy analysts like the well-respected Charles T. Maxwell of Weeden & Co. rightly issue dour warnings about our inability to maintain and/or increase oil production:
“Currently, we are utilizing about 98% of our world crude oil-producing capacity. The system should be considered stressed at a 95% utilization rate. We are no longer investing enough to lift capacity additions above the level of future demand growth on a consistent basis.”
That’s a big problem, because as he says, the demand for oil doesn’t stay still. Each year, oil demand from the developing world increases total demand by 2%. We don’t have very many months left of that kind of oil demand growth.
So, that’s bad.
Where Do Stocks Go from Here?
Stocks are bouncing higher today after some hefty declines this week. The S&P 500 flirted with some support areas around 1,300. There was a virtual consensus that stocks were overbought and needed a pullback, and we got one.
The question is: was that enough to relieve some of the pressure and give stocks room to rally higher?
I suspect we will see a period of consolidation before stocks make a decisive move. Investors appear to be more focused on the crosscurrents of economic data and trends.
Cisco, Apple and the Nasdaq
Now, Apple alone accounts for 20% of the Nasdaq 100 (the 100 largest stocks on the Nasdaq). Throw in Google (4.2%), Microsoft (3.6%) and Cisco 1.6%, and you're looking at 30% of the Nasdaq 100. Nearly one-third of the Nasdaq 100 was lower on Thursday, easily the most influential tech companies, and the Nasdaq managed a gain for the day.
Is This the Dip to Buy?
It's Veteran's Day, I'm taking a moment to recognize the sacrifice and dedication of our military.
The bond markets are closed today, so we're losing an important catalyst for the stock market. Without the running gauge for the U.S. dollar, traders will have to depend on recent news to drive the action today. And that may not be a good thing...
Cisco (Nasdaq:CSCO) is down huge after its earnings report last night. The company beat earnings by a couple pennies, but offered guidance that was well below expectations.
Bill Gross: Government Debt is a Ponzi Scheme
Today Bill Gross told reporters at CNBC that massive influxes of capital from the Federal Reserve "is in fact inflationary, and, if truth be told, somewhat of a Ponzi scheme."
Over the past seven months, Mr. Gross has slowly dumped hundreds of millions of dollars worth of U.S. Treasury bonds in preparation for what he believes is the end of the bull run in bonds.
Bernanke's Burden
I don't want to temp fate. I'm not trying to jinx it. I understand that stocks (and gold, and oil) are rallying on the Fed's promise and the falling dollar.
But this rally just doesn't want to reverse.
Yesterday was wide open for the bears to take prices lower. Financial stocks, usually thought of as stock market leaders, were absolutely crushed. It was a rout. Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) got creamed for 5%. Citi (NYSE:C) lost 4.5%. Even JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM), after a good earnings report, was down as much as 4% at its lows of the day.
Why a Trade War with China is Bad News
We're in the home stretch of 2010. The favorite, Weak Recovery, is ahead by a nose. QE2 and Falling Dollar are right behind. Toxic Asset and Solid Earnings have been unable to mount a charge.
But two horses -- Man 'o Trade War and Europe's Problem -- are moving on the outside and could decide the race.
There are so many conflicting catalysts, sometimes it seems as though you have to pick your horse, place your bet and see what happens.
What Will Obama Say?
Yesterday, buyers mustered the strength to build on Wednesday's strong rally. In fact, the bulls pushed the S&P 500 above a key resistance point at 1,085.
I've talked at length about how pessimism was at an extreme and a bounce for stocks looked likely. Recent economic data has been good enough to support the notion of an economic recovery, and while not setting records, it is at least strong enough to avoid a double-dip of recession.
Most of the recent data was in line with expectations: factory orders were up 0.1%, productivity was down 1.8% and labor costs were up 1.1%. However, Wednesday's strong new home sales for July (up 5.2% when a loss was expected) was probably the single most important data point.
Don't Bet Against the U.S.
Before May, there were plenty of investors wondering if the stock market had gotten too far ahead of the economy. Sure, stock valuations themselves have stayed within historic norms, supported by strong earnings growth.
But with unemployment stuck at persistently high levels, ongoing imbalances in the economy, and record high budget deficits, it’s reasonable to wonder how long earnings growth can continue. Now, after the debt issues with
At last week’s lows, the S&P 500 was down 9.6% from its highs. Oil prices are down 20%.
How Much for the Island?
Investing in gold is often called a “fear trade.” In times of crisis, it’s believed that gold will hold its value, and even rise, while the value of paper currencies and other assets fall.
If you bought SPDR Gold ETF (NYSE:GLD), which seeks to track the price of physical gold, 2 years ago, you’d be up around 36%.
The S&P 500 is down around 15% during that time.
You probably already know that gold hit a new all-time high yesterday at $1,200 an ounce. And even though other traditional measures of fear – like the volatility index (VIX), bonds and even stocks – didn’t move much today, the move in gold can’t be ignored.
Greece's Debt Faux Pas
This morning, I find myself wondering how long investors can continue to support cash raising activities. That’s probably not the best way to pose the question. Perhaps after I set the stage, the question will make more sense.
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