One thing that seems to be missing is the timetable for Greek default. It would be good to know exactly when the Euro-banks have to book the losses.

Earnings season has been a success so far, with roughly 70% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported so far beating expectations.

The end of QE2 is perhaps the biggest question mark right now. It might be the perfect ironic outcome if Treasury bonds rally after the Fed let's its Treasury buying program end.

The Fed was deliberately attempting to prop up the stock market with QE2, driving money out of bonds and into stocks. That's the "risk on" trade, appropriate for when the Fed is backstopping assets.

It looks as though the tone of earnings season has taken a bullish turn. Weak earnings from banks, along with a couple revenue misses had investors on edge.

But yesterday's decidedly positive results from Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT), 3M (NYSE:MMM) and UPS (NYSE:UPS) sparked a big rally. And positive earnings from Microsoft (Nasdaq:MSFT), Verizon (NYSE:VZ) and Ford (NYSE:F) look like they will extend the rally.

Bloomberg reports that 85% of S&P 500 companies that have reported have beaten earnings estimates.

Up, down, up down. To say that the stock market has been volatile over the last week is like saying King Kong was big monkey. It's true, but it doesn't really give the complete picture.

Investors and traders really don't seem to know what's coming next. I've tuned into CNBC a few times during the trading day recently, and you can see the frustration on the commentators' faces. It's as if they know that, no matter what they say, they will be wrong.

This market is experiencing indecision in its purest form.

Small-cap stocks pushed higher on the opening, lifted by a rally in overseas markets, weekend talk of a huge infrastructure stimulus plan from President-elect Obama and a bounce in commodity stocks. At 9:57 a.m. ET, the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) was up 10.19, or 2.21%, at 471.28.

Crude oil prices were up about $2.70 a barrel into the stock market open, trying to mount a bounce after hitting four-year lows Friday and tumbling some 25% last week while generating the largest percentage decline in some 18 years. Copper prices also were higher overseas, and soft commodities like sugar and cocoa were soaring in early U.S. trading.

Some of the support in commodities was tied to a slide in the U.S. dollar, which was down 1.2% against the euro. The dollar was up 0.4% against the yen, but that was more of a reflection of a riskier mentality in play after last week’s big stock market bounce off the bearish jobs picture (the low-yielding yen tends to find support in safe-haven times). So, just where is the FX flow moving today? The Mexican peso and South African rand were both in rally mode today, as money flow into emerging markets and commodity exporters was in vogue.

A big part of the early rise in stocks was tied to news this weekend that Obama was planning a massive infrastructure stimulus project, which sparked a rise in engineering and commodity stocks in Asia and Europe that rode the tide into U.S. action this morning. Obama also said that U.S. automakers should not be allowed to fail, and the Senate is meeting today to discuss bailout packages for U.S. vehicle firms. Shortly after the open, General Motors Corp. (NYSE:GM) was up 19.1%, while Ford Motor Co. (NYSE:F) was up 15.4%.

Despite the feel-good tone present in the glow of Friday’s triumphant stock market rally despite dreary employment data, there were spots of worrisome news in play. Dow Chemical Co. (NYSE:DOW) announced plans to close 20 plants . . .

Small-cap stocks closed lower, pulled down by slumping commodity markets, a cautious tone amid peak earnings season and lagging performance in the tech sector. The Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) closed down 16.18, or 2.96%, at 530.65 and is now down 31% for the year. For the first time in many months, the Dow has actually pulled virtually even with the Russell for 2008, while the S&P 500 is off 35%. Just a few weeks ago, the annual performance spread between the Russell and Dow was in double digits on a percentage basis, so the recent collapse in the spread between small- and large-caps reflects an even more aggressive flight out of “riskier” small-cap fare from investors.

If Monday’s big rally was primarily about energy, then today’s slide had a few more tentacles in play, but the main theme in motion was about the economy and whether or not global slowing would continue to get in the way of the stock market.

From a global standpoint, a recession in the United States and a sharp downturn around the world will hurt demand for commodity goods, a theme that played out today … not just in the U.S. market, but around the globe. Perhaps the perfect poster child for that theme today was the copper market, which crumbled to the lowest point since December 2005 and is now off 50% from the spring highs. A big part of that pullback is linked to China, where GDP slipped below double digits this week for the first time in five years. And the whole bearish commodities story surely got an extra kick from a big rally in the U.S. dollar, which makes commodities priced in dollar terms more expensive — and therefore crimps demand for those products. The greenback soared more than 200 basis points, or some 2% against the euro, making not just new highs for the move but also charging to the highest point since February 2007. With the dollar on a rampage and commodities limping on demand fears, crude oil’s rally from Monday was short-lived. Crude oil futures plunged some 4% and quickly . . .

Small-cap stocks gave back a sizable chunk of Monday’s big rally early on today, pressured by concerns that corporate profits are already sloppy and will be further strained by a weak economy going forward. At 9:54 a.m. ET, the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) was down 8.46, or 1.55%, at 538.37.

With no economic reports on tap today, the market will focus on the wave of quarterly earnings coming in. Although the earnings news has been mixed so far, investors clearly are concerned that even the upside surprises were already tainted by very low projections or will be pinched to perform into what appears to be a difficult 2009.

The lift small caps enjoyed Monday from the energy sector appeared on the wane today, with crude oil prices slipping on concerns about demand. Also, commodities in general were likely to be on the defensive as the U.S. dollar was soaring against the euro, climbing 1.25%, which makes commodities priced in dollar terms more expensive (and less attractive to foreign buyers).

Around the world overnight, stocks were mixed, with Japan up 3.3%, Hong Kong down 1.8%, China off 0.8%, Taiwan up 0.2%, Australia up 3.8%, Singapore down 0.9%, South Korea down 1% and India up 4.5%. Europe was in positive territory on news that France would pour some 10.5 billion euros into the banking arena, but the early slide in the U.S. market pulled down Europe.

Back to the earnings story, the one that really seemed to sum up the market sentiment this morning was Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE:TXN). TXN shares were off 9% shortly after the open as the company projected earnings for the upcoming quarter well below the forecast, which reflects the difficult operating environment for tech companies amid a slumping economy. Also in the tech arena, . . .

Small-cap stocks started out the week with a thud, sinking hard and fast amid concerns about the relentless credit crisis and a potential slowdown in global growth. The Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) tumbled 17.06, or 2.31%, to 720.54, generating the largest one-day decline in about four weeks. The Russell is now down 5.93% for the year, while the Dow is down 14.1% after slipping 2.08% Monday. The S&P 500 lost 1.96% today and is off 13.7% for the year.

Financial stocks were once again bloodied, as investors are not confident in bank, brokerage or insurance shares amid slumping economic conditions and uncertainty about the extent of debt write-downs emanating from the mortgage and housing swoon. American International Group (NYSE:AIG) tumbled to 13-year lows today, sinking 5.7% on analyst downgrades, and other financial stocks were also pummeled. The up-and-down (mostly down) world at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (NYSE:LEH) took a turn for the worse today as concerns were voiced about the proposed Korean buyer that emerged late last week. LEH slumped 11.2% on the talk. The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund shed 3.3% and the PHLX KBW Banking Index was off 3.2%. Nearly every large name bank was in the red today, and that selling momentum spread easily into small-cap financial stocks as well.

Fresh data on the housing arena failed to instill confidence in the bulls that things were ready to improve. Even though the headline figure on existing home sales came in above the forecast (plus 3.1% versus plus 0.9%), there were still troubling elements in the report, included a record high supply of homes on the market and steep price declines from last year. The market will get more data on the housing picture with Tuesday morning’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index, and then later in the morning from the New Home Sales report.

Financials and the never-ending credit crisis weren’t the only worries facing investors today. Talk that the International Monetary Fund was lowering global growth projections was troubling for technology, small-cap and industrial names, and today’s index losses were paced by the tech-laden Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000. Within the tech sector, big firms like Apple Inc. (Nasdaq:AAPL) and Research in Motion Ltd. (Nasdaq:RIMM) lost 2.3% and 3.1%, respectively. On the industrial front, Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT) and 3M Company (NYSE:MMM) were . . .

Small-cap stocks are expected to open slightly lower, pulled down by a mixed tone on the earnings front and by soft economic data in the employment picture. The Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) was off about 0.3% in after-hours trading, which suggests an open near 717.00.

The weekly claims report came in well above analyst expectations, with the headline figure at 406,000 compared with a median forecast closer to 380,000. The immediate response to the number was a mild extension of the overnight dip in S&P 500 futures. The market will also get a chance to respond to existing home sales data later this morning at 10:00 a.m. ET.

Crude oil prices were up modestly ahead of the U.S. open, but did slip to seven-week lows overnight and have seen a dramatic $23-dollar-a-barrel freefall in recent days. The dollar saw a big rally Wednesday, but was narrowly mixed this morning and pulled back after the weekly claims figure.

On the earnings front, there were several big-name companies out with results this morning, but the returns were mixed and investors did not appear to latch . . .

With asphalt additives, sealants and duct-tape supreme, Chase Corp. (AMEX: CCF) is keeping the edgy infrastructure in the United States from cracking up. There’s a lot to do and Chase is doing its share. Through acquisitions and efficient operations, Chase is forging a foundation of profit and revenue growth.

That’s what happens when you’re exploiting niches in an industry in need. Bridgewater, Mass.-based Chase, founded in 1946, has eight core product lines. These include the asphalt additives and joint sealants for paving roads and bridges, tapes for natural gas and oil pipeline repair, and tapes for electrical and telecom wire repair. It also makes coatings for printed circuit boards, durable papers for radio-frequency identification tags, custom printed labels and packaging materials. The company also has a smaller electronic manufacturing services division.

For the first quarter of fiscal 2008 ended Nov. 30, Chase reported this month an 11% gain to revenues to $34.6 million, compared to the same period the previous year. Diluted earnings per share increased 32% to $0.41, up from $0.31. The quarter’s success followed a similar 2007, when revenues increased to $127.5 million, up from $108.4 in 2006. Earnings per share were $1.22 in 2007, up from $0.77.

Chase’s power stroke is coming from highway and bridge construction products, and pipeline expansion and upgrades. Federal money earmarked for highways is driving spending on transportation infrastructure, and last summer’s bridge collapse in Minnesota also is likely to mark additional spending on repair and maintenance of bridges, says Robert Damron, analyst at 21st Century Equity Research, in an October report as he initiated coverage with a “strong buy” rating.

Higher energy costs also are spurring expansion and upgrades of national gas and oil pipelines, says Damron, the sole analyst covering the company. Management is consolidating and integrating many separately-run companies to increase cross-selling opportunities and reduce duplicate costs.