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I’m no nuclear expert. Far from it. So the reports
that the pools where spent nuclear fuel rods are stored have no water,
that the rods are completely exposed to the atmosphere and releasing
radiation are frightening.
And reports that many countries including
the U.S. are
advising their citizens to leave Japan aren’t helping.
But the fact is that I have no way to
realistically assess the danger and what it might mean for the Japanese
people and the global economy. Frankly, I don’t like not being able to
make an informed opinion about what’s going on, it’s like flying blind.
Unfortunately, it’s probably too late for me to get that nuclear
engineering degree…
*****The S&P 500 bounced exactly on support at
1,250 yesterday. And stocks are putting together a strong open today.
Will it hold? Is there more work to do to establish 1,250 as a floor and
move stocks higher?
These are important questions, and very difficult
to answer, given the outrageous amount of undetermined macro
issues.
The outcome for Japan‘s nuclear problems is
completely unpredictable. Add to that the situation in
Libya, and
now Bahrain,
and it truly feels like any stance at this point is just a guess.
Investing should not be based on guesswork.
*****The U.S.
is now backing plans for a “no-fly zone”
over Libya.
If NATO or the U.N. actually moves on Libya, there’s no doubt
Iran will have
something to say about it.
Bahrain is cracking
down on Shiite minority groups, and that could incite more violence
in Saudi Arabia. Instability in the Middle
East is far from resolved.
*****Inflation data from the Consumer Price Index
(CPI) was
inline and reflected what we saw from the PPI earlier in the week.
Inflation (if you want to call it that) is isolated to food and energy.
Prices for other goods are stable.
Some are forecasting that the rebuilding process
in Japan will
provide enough demand to help put supply chains back on track, especially
for China.
That, in turn, could lessen some of the inflationary pressure in
China.
*****There may be some trading gains out there for
nimble traders. Jason Cimpl got his
TradeMaster Daily Stock Alerts members
into a couple upside positions yesterday, as the stock market was hitting
its lows. Jason continues to maintain the belief that the market will
attain new highs if 1250 holds. The index hit 1249.05 yesterday and he
told subscribers to go long. That’s looking like a pretty good call so
far…