First off, I should point out that I do not relish the destruction of Greece. I predict that the fallout from Greek sovereign debt issues will bleed into the lives of regular people who have done nothing wrong except to (perhaps foolishly) place faith in their government and its ridiculous currency.
Even if the fall of the Euro fits neatly into my investment plans, and it reinforces my personal belief that fiat money systems are inherently flawed – I take no joy in what I believe will happen in Greece, and eventually many other countries inside the Euro-zone. I’m talking about crisis. Shortages. Increased unemployment. Maybe even some dead bodies.
It’s not going to be pretty. Heck, it’s not pretty right now. So called “austerity protests” going on in Greece over the past week or so look more like riots to me:
So what’s going on in Greece isn’t good.
But as long as something is falling, there’s no shame in pushing it. And profiting.
So here’s what I recommend. If you’ve been a reader of this free letter for very long, you know that I don’t frequently give immediately actionable advice. Usually, I point out what’s cheap, give a few investment ideas, and let you come to your own conclusions.
But today, I think you should take action.
Sell the Euro. I don’t mean you should trade Forex on the Euro or that you should cash in your leftover Euro change from your Paris vacation last year.
I mean, you should sell the Rydex CurrencyShares Euro ETF (NYSE: FXE).
Now, if you’ve never shorted shares of a security, there’s no time like the present to give it a try. Sell one share of the Euro ETF short. It’s not any riskier than buying a stock. It’s just as easy. And once you gain confidence shorting stocks, you’ll be ready the next time the market begins to falter in earnest.
When should you buy it back? I’d look for the dollar index to return to the 81 level:
That would bring us back to the year-to-date high for the index. If we see that level in the dollar index, I think shorting the Euro today could net you a quick 5-10% gain.
I briefly discussed selling the Euro short yesterday as part of a gold investing strategy, and honestly, the time has rarely been better to pursue it. The dollar is weak compared to the Euro, and arguably, the Euro is in more immediate danger. We also have the wind to our backs, as the dollar weakness trend began reversing in the beginning of May.
Unfortunately, if I’m correct, we will see commodity prices fall with dollar strength. But that’s okay. The time will come to buy the Euro back and sell the dollar.