The Final Stage of the Commodity Bull Market

The commodity bull market will end. All bull markets end. And when it does end, it will be replaced by another bull market – probably in stocks.

But before it ends, it will go through a final stage, typically called a blow-off stage.

And these blow-off stages are characterized by massive upward price trends – parabolic moves.

An example below is the gold bull market of 1970-1980:

gold bull market of 1970-1980

Notice that this bull market was interrupted by a substantial 50% correction between 1974 and 1976.

But then the bull market continued, and in 1979-1980, the price of gold screamed higher in a very pronounced parabolic move.

Gold stocks mirrored this move, skyrocketing in 1979.

Gold stocks

But it wasn’t just gold that participated in this "blow-off" stage in the 1970s.

Oil boomed as well – as you may recall.

Oil prices jumped from $3.39 a barrel in 1970 to over $37 a barrel in 1980 before languishing for the next 20 years between $11 and $20.

Today, we have not yet entered this final blow-off stage. But I believe we’re in the intermediate time of consolidation, when commodity prices languish, if not fall precipitously.

The point is, most commodity investors will get bucked by this bull. They will sell during the intermediate doldrums of this bull market. They will be selling at the worst possible time.

Because during this downturn in gold and oil prices, you should be a buyer – just as you should have been a buyer of gold and oil in 1974-1976 as the bull bucked.

And right now, it appears that the gold market is losing steam.

gold market

Oil seems to be languishing as well after peaking in 2008.

Oil market

My broader point is that we have not yet entered this blow-off stage – and that is the greatest proof that the commodity bull market is still intact.

And staying in commodities now by buying on dips is the best way to insure you will profit during the next greatest stage of the commodity bull market – which could begin at any time.

Good investing,

Kevin McElroy
Resource Prospector PRO

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