My Favorite Stock For 2012

My favorite stock to buy for 2012 is still on sale… but it’s not as cheap as it was at the beginning of the year. It’s up over 10% from January 1 – but it’s still compelling.

Freeport McMoran (NYSE: FCX) currently has more superlatives than a high school yearbook.

It’s the biggest copper miner in the world.

It owns the mining rights to three of the world’s largest copper mines – one in Utah, one in Indonesia and one in South America.

According to the 2011 Forbes 2000 list, Freeport is the also the highest  ranked gold mining company.

Forbes ranks companies based on sales, profits, assets and market value – so Freeport beat out market favorites like Gold Corp (NYSE: GG), Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX) and Newmont Gold (NYSE: NEM).

Even better: Freeport currently trades for less than 10 times earnings, and they pay a 2.2% annual yield.

Even for a big boring mining company, 10 times earnings is cheap. The entire sector is cheap now too – with the average PE ratio just above 10.

Of course, underscoring my enthusiasm for Freeport is my thesis for higher commodity prices – yes, even copper.

And I’m quite aware that copper is the only commodity with a PhD in economics. I’ve heard all the platitudes about copper being a harbinger of the broad economy, and that copper needs growth and economic expansion in order to maintain higher prices.

But we’ve seen this scenario before. Demand for copper can fall, even as its dollar denominated price rises.

That’s because supply and demand aren’t the only functions that influence asset prices anymore. We’re through the looking glass, and a currency crisis will eventually make everyone pay more for every asset – even if it’s a growth asset like copper.

Not only is Freeport cheap, it also meets all of my other objections. It has very little debt. A huge profit margin.

And every time it’s been this cheap in terms of PE ratio, the company soared in price over the next year. In different terms: Freeport has rarely been this cheap on an earnings basis.

Now, I’m not saying you should go out and load up the truck today on Freeport. I’m saying you should look for weakness in this stock, and buy in tranches over the next few months. I think we’ll see significant gains over the course of 2012.

Good investing,

Kevin McElroy
Resource Prospector

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