How to Choose Your Own Win Ratio

Flip a coin.

Heads = Winning trades.

Tails = Losing trades.

10 coins = win rate is theoretically 50%, but if you do this several times there is the possibility that the coin will land on heads 3 times, or three tails (30% to 70% range).

100 coins = range 40 heads or tails (40% to 60% range).

1000 coins = range 475 heads or tails (47.5% to 52.5%).

The above shows that if you take your chosen probability of success, say in our case 90% and extrapolate it out 1000 times your margin of error decreases significantly. Basically, the more you trade with a given probability of success the more likely that probability of success will come true over the long-term.

So, just think about your typical stock trader or retail options trader that trades with a 50% or 33% probability of success. Over the long-term those percentages will come to fruition and if you include transaction costs you can almost be assured that you will be fighting a losing battle. So why do it. Why subject yourself to a strategy, or lack thereof that is set up to fail? You know that the more you do it the more certain your expectations will match your probability of success.

The question is, if you know the outcome over the long-term why are you not delving into strategies that allow you at least with a starting point for success.

The financial industry would have you believe options area too difficult, too hard to understand. As a student of options for over ten years I can tell you that is not true. Options are not difficult. Yes, you might have to think differently than you have in the past, but if that is what it takes to start using effective strategies with a statistical advantage then so be it.

Challenge yourself to be a better investor. Think differently from the herd.

What allows for options strategies with such a high-probability of success?

In the probability of success chart above most retail options traders take on directional out-of-the-money positions with a 33% chance or below.

For the most part, unlike stocks, options are a zero sum game. So, if there is an investor/trader out there willing to take on a position with only a 33% probability of success the other side (my preferred side) has a 67% or higher probability of success.

I prefer to take this a step further and take on the opposing side of an investor trader who is willing to buy a deep out-of-the-money option in hopes of hitting a homerun. I start at 80%, but often move towards 85% to 90%. Why do I do this? Because the probability of success for the trade is 85% or higher and I ALWAYS want probability on my side.

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