How Many Americans Will Die? Surprising New Prediction

death toll

100,000 – 240,000 Americans will die of coronavirus.

That death toll projection is what President Trump announced in a White House briefing last week.

Yet new numbers released on April 5 suggest that the death toll will be smaller.

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New projections suggest that the total number of American deaths will be 81,776.

April 16 is expected to be the peak day for deaths in the U.S.

The model had previously predicted 93,531 deaths. Yet three days of additional data have resulted in a lower projected death toll.

That’s based upon a new and updated model from the University of Washington’s Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). The organization created the model to help hospitals plan for the crisis.

It’s now expecting fewer total hospital beds and patients in intensive care units.

The White House reviewed 12 different models when Dr. Brix revealed the 100,000 – 240,000 projection for the U.S. death toll. And the IHME model was one that greatly influenced the projections

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Now, it’s good news to see the projections on the death toll initially dropping.

However, it’s also possible that the death toll numbers tick higher. That’s because the IHME model makes a couple of important assumptions:

  1. Every state will impose strict stay-at-home orders.
  2. These restrictions will remain in place until early August.

“If social distancing measures are relaxed or not implemented, the U.S. will see greater death tolls, the peak will be later, and burden on hospitals will be much greater, and the economic costs will continue to grow,” says IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray.

That seems to conflict with the message from the White House.

President Trump encouraged continued social distancing and “stay at home” guidance through the end of April.

The president is anxious to get the economy up and running after an unprecedented shutdown. And he’s certainly not going to keep things closed down until August.

If current restrictions are relaxed the current projections will be too optimistic.

It’s great to see a little good news during this bleak time.

Of course, a COVID-19 vaccine is the ultimate solution to this health crisis.

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Yours in Health & Wealth,

Ian Wyatt

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