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TikTok is under fire.
Congress is working to ban TikTok or force its sale.
The House of Representatives just passed the bill with a 352-to-65 vote.
The bill now goes to the Senate for a vote. Meanwhile, President Biden says he’ll sign the bill.
Let’s assume for a minute that this happens.
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So, what will happen to TikTok if its banned?
There are two options.
Option #1. TikTok gets shut down in the U.S.
ByteDance owns the TikTok app.
TikTok will be shut down in the U.S. if ByteDance is unable – or unwilling – to sell the app.
The sale of TikTok USA would require approval from the Chinese Community Party. And it’s possible they would block the sale to an American company.
Option #2. TikTok Gets Acquired by American Investors
ByteDance is valued at $268 billion.
They could sell the U.S. version of the TikTok app for approximately $60 – $100 billion.
This begs the question…
Who could buy TikTok?
America’s big tech stocks would love to buy TikTok.
The app could be a natural fit for Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms or Microsoft.
However, the FTC might block a deal with any of those companies.
Former Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin tells CNBC that he’s putting together an investor group. And the former CEO of Activision is also exploring a bid.
However, I think Oracle (NASDAQ: ORLC) is the most likely contender.
President Trump tried to force the sale of TikTok USA in 2020. And Oracle and Walmart (NYSE: WMT) made a bid for the app at the time.
Oracle is currently TikTok’s “trusted technology partner.
It provides cloud hosting for TikTok in the U.S. And is paid $1 billion per year for these services.
The FTC would likely approve an Oracle Acquisition of TikTok USA. That’s because Oracle isn’t in the social media or online advertising business.
Oracle would be forced to raise capital to fund a deal.
Another option is that Oracle would partner with venture capitalists or private equity firms to get a deal done.
It’ll be fun watching this situation unfold.
As Yogi Berra would say…
“It’s Déjà vu All Over Again.”
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Ian