Dr. Fauci Predicts Herd Immunity On This Date

herd immunity

It has been one year since the World Health Organization said the coronavirus was a pandemic. A lot has happened since, including accelerated vaccinations and Dr. Fauci offering his projections on herd immunity.

But the pandemic numbers don’t even begin to tell the tale of human suffering this virus has brought.

  • Over 118 million cases of coronavirus confirmed worldwide
  • More than 2.6 million deaths  caused by the coronavirus
  • In the U.S. alone, more than 29 million cases and more than 530,000 deaths from the virus
  • The U.S. is approaching the 100 million mark for vaccines administered; herd immunity not expected until later in 2021

Now, let’s look at the financial impact:

  • The U.S. government will spend over $5 trillion on Covid relief programs.
  • Despite the recent rebound, 9.5 million fewer people are employed in the U.S. than a year ago.
  • Overall, the economy has regained only three-quarters of the sharp drop in output at the start of the pandemic.

And as for the  stock market, the S&P 500 is up 42% in the past year. The Nasdaq is up 62% and the Russell 2000 is up 85%.

The Big News

Biden Says All Adults Eligible for Vaccine by May 1

On the back of a speedy vaccine drive, President Biden offered a rosy timeline to the nation. He stuck to his estimate that the U.S. will have enough vaccine supplies for all adults who want one by the end of May. But he went a step further by directing all states to make every person over 18 eligible for a shot by May 1.

Herd Immunity Forecast From Dr. Fauci

herd immunity
Dr. Fauci

Dr. Anthony Fauci defined his forecast on herd immunity in the U.S. Fauci said that current vaccination levels indicate the United States could reach pre-pandemic levels of “normal life” by late August or early September. Fauci said the herd immunity range for the U.S. would be between 70% to 85% of the population. 

One-Quarter of U.S. Adults Inoculated at Least Once

One-quarter of American adults have now received at least one coronavirus shot. This puts the U.S. vaccine rollout on the cusp of surpassing 100 million doses in total, moving the nation closer to a level of herd immunity expected later in the year. More than 64 million people have been given either one or two doses. That translates to 19.3% of the overall population and 25.1% of those over 18 years old. The latest figures also showed that 33.7 million people over the age of 65 have received at least one dose. That equates to 62.4% of the nation’s senior population. All data comes from the CDC.

Virus Variants in All 50 States

Every U.S. state has now detected at least one variant of coronavirus. According to data from the CDC last updated on March 9, South Dakota and Vermont were the only two states to not have confirmed coronavirus variants that were first identified in the UK (B.1.1.7), South Africa (B.1.351) or Brazil (P.1). Now both states have reported variant cases.

Novavax Shot Highly Effective

Novavax’s vaccine was 100% effective at preventing severe Covid-19. That was the final analysis of the Novavax trial that paved the way for UK emergency use authorization. Its vaccine had a 96.4% efficacy rate against the original strain of the virus. That is even higher than the BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna shots. It was 86.3% effective against the B.1.1.7 (UK) strain. It was far less effective against the South African variant, at 55.4%.

The Coronavirus Numbers

Here are the numbers from Friday at 8 a.m. ET from Johns Hopkins University:

  • 118,689,552 Infected Worldwide
  • 335,439,337 Vaccines Given Globally
  • 2,631,949 Deaths
  • 29,286,650 Infected in the U.S.
  • 98,203,893 US Vaccine Doses Administered
  • 530,829 Deaths in the U.S.

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What’s Next

The selloff in U.S. government bonds resumed today. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury rose 0.08 percentage points to 1.6% in early trading.

The move comes a day after President Biden signed a $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief bill into law. The stimulus is prompting forecasts of a strong post-pandemic rebound for the U.S. economy. The fear is that too strong a rebound will awaken inflation.

Low Treasury yields underpin stock valuations. So, any rise will put pressure on U.S. stocks.

And in particular, the pressure is on richly valued technology stocks. Futures markets have the Nasdaq 100 over 1% lower today. That is more than double the loss for other indices.

Meanwhile, this next-generation electric vehicle battery stock is expected to go public in March. Click here to get your Pre-IPO shares ASAP.

Yours in Health & Wealth,

Tony Daltorio

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