The protests in Egypt ended mostly the way the
protestors desired: with the end of the Mubarak regime and hope that a
better, more democratic government will rule.
The resolution to the protests in
Libya do not look as
though they will end with such a positive outcome.
250 are already reported dead and leader Muammar
Qaddafi’s son has vowed that “rivers of blood will flow.” The conflict is
already being called a low level civil war.
But like Egypt, the military is the wild
card. In the case of Egypt, the military clearly
never backed Mubarak. In Libya, the military has sided
with Qaddafi. But there are signs that troops are deserting. Two Libyan
planes sought asylum in Malta
rather than bomb Libyan civilians. Other planes
appear to have carried out the orders.
Some Libyan officials and several of its
ambassadors have resigned their positions and sided with the
However the Libyan situation plays out, it’s
probably going to take a while. And that has some serious implications
for oil prices…
*****Oil prices made a huge move on Monday, while
the U.S. markets were closed. Crude prices were 8%, more than $7, to
$93 a barrel.
As I wrote on Friday:
If you don